Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 6, 2000 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 4, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 4, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 4, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on August 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 421 and 613 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 158.6, the planetary A index was 26 (3-hour K indices: 3355 4434, Boulder K indices: 2365 4433). Regions 9104, 9105, 9107 and 9110 were mostly quiet and stable. Region 9111 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9113 was mostly quiet and stable. Region 9114 developed slowly and could produce C flares and perhaps a minor M flare. Region 9115 was quiet and stable but could produce C flares. Region 9116 was quiet and stable. New region 9117 emerged in the southwest quadrant near the central meridian. New region 9118 emerged in the northern hemisphere over the central meridian. New region 9119 emerged in the southeast quadrant near the central meridian. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C class events were recorded on August 5. Region 9110 produced a C1.4 flare at 01:40 UTC. Region 9111 generated a C1.2 flare at 22:37 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 6, an isolated minor storm interval is possible. Quiet to unsettled is likely on August 7-8. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9102 20000725 S17W89 plage 9104 20000726 1 S18W54 0060 HSX 9105 20000727 1 N17W38 0070 HSX 9107 20000729 4 S16W27 0020 CAO 9109 20000729 S06W51 plage 9110 20000731 6 S19W07 0090 DAO 9111 20000801 N10W29 plage 9112 20000802 N14W53 plage 9113 20000802 8 S25W52 0040 CSO 9114 20000802 13 N12E41 0230 EAO 9115 20000803 6 N16E56 0230 CSO 9116 20000804 1 S13E49 0050 HSX 9117 20000805 3 S09W07 0020 CAO 9118 20000805 3 N18W02 0010 BXO 9119 20000805 5 S13E08 0030 CRO Total number of sunspots: 51 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.3 (+1.2) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.5 (+3.2) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 (117.0 predicted, +4.2) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 (120.7 predicted, +3.7) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (122.9 predicted, +2.2) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (123.7 predicted, +0.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (125.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 2000.08 153.4 (1) 23.3 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]