:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2000 Jul 12 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
03 - 09 JULY 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM VERY LOW TO HIGH LEVELS. ACTIVITY WAS LOW
DURING 3 - 6 JULY DUE TO ISOLATED TO OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES
FROM A VARIETY OF REGIONS. EVENTS OF INTEREST DURING THIS PERIOD
INCLUDED A 13-DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE FROM REGION 9068 (S18, L
= 048, CLASS/AREA EKC/390 ON 8 JULY) WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II
RADIO SWEEP AT 04/2243UT AND A C4/SF AT 06/1236UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
TYPE II RADIO SWEEP FROM REGION 9070 (N18, L = 029, CLASS/AREA
EAC/340 ON 8 JULY). ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS ON 7 JULY
DUE TO A PAIR OF M-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 9071 (N22, L = 083,
CLASS/AREA CRO/050 ON 7 JULY). THE FIRST WAS AN M1/SN AT 07/1105UT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. THE SECOND FLARE WAS AN
M1/1B AT 07/1819UT. OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEPS
OCCURRED AT 07/0318UT AND 07/2055UT. IMAGES FROM THE SOHO/LASCO
INSTRUMENT SHOWED A HALO-TYPE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) BEGINNING
AT 07/1026UT, WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A FILAMENT
DISAPPEARANCE NEAR CENTER DISK. ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS ON
8 JULY. ACTIVITY INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS ON 9 JULY DUE TO AN M5/1N
FLARE AT 09/0723UT FROM REGION 9077 (N18, L = 311, CLASS/AREA
FKI/750 ON 9 JULY). REGION 9077 ROTATED INTO VIEW ON 7 JULY AS A
LARGE, MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP. NOTE: AT ISSUE TIME
REGION 9077 HAD PRODUCED ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARES. DETAILS WILL BE
PROVIDED IN NEXT WEEK'S ISSUE.

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE NASA ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK
CORONAL HOLE SIGNATURE WAS OBSERVED DURING 4 - 5 JULY. DURING THIS
TIME, VELOCITIES INCREASED TO A HIGH OF 510 KM/SEC, IMF BZ BECAME
MOSTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MAXIMUM DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 9 NT (GSM), AND
THE SOLAR SECTOR SHIFTED FROM TOWARD (NEGATIVE POLARITY) TO AWAY
(POSITIVE POLARITY).

THERE WERE NO PROTON EVENTS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING 3
- 4 JULY. ACTIVITY INCREASED TO QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 5 - 6
JULY WITH BRIEF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM PERIODS DETECTED AT HIGH
LATITUDES. ACTIVITY DECLINED TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
12 JULY - 07 AUGUST 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS UNTIL
REGION 9077 CROSSES THE WEST LIMB ON 21 JULY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS THEREAFTER WITH ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARES LIKELY.

A GREATER THAN 10 MEV SOLAR PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOLLOWING A MAJOR FLARE THAT OCCURRED ON 11 JULY FROM REGION 9077.
ADDITIONAL PROTON EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL REGION 9077 DEPARTS THE
VISIBLE DISK ON 21 JULY.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT  NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HIGH FLUX LEVELS DURING
13 - 18 AND 25 - 26 JULY.

ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING 12 - 14 JULY DUE
TO RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON THE 14TH. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING 15 - 16 JULY AS THE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING 24 - 25 JULY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET
TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, BARRING ANOTHER EARTH-DIRECTED CME.


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