[Image] 14 July 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Real-Time Monitoring Page + Latest Sun-Earth Connection Data Solar Observations July 14, 2000 + EIT Image 1024 UT, July 14, 2000 + EIT Running Difference Image 1024 UT, July 14, 2000 + LASCO C2 Image 1054 UT, July 14, 2000 + LASCO C2 Running Difference Image 1054 UT, July 14, 2000 + LASCO C3 Image 1118 UT, July 14, 2000 + EIT Movie MPEG, July 14, 2000 + EIT Running Difference Movie MPEG, July 14, 2000 + LASCO Coronagraph C2 Movie MPEG, July 14, 2000 + LASCO Coronagraph C2 Running Difference Movie MPEG, July 14, 2000 + LASCO Coronagraph C3 Movie MPEG, July 14, 2000 + TRACE Image of arcade following flare, 1059 UT, July 14, 2000 + TRACE Movie of 'slinky' arcade - 6.8MB SOHO Celias/MTOF Proton Monitor + Proton monitor data, 20 UT, July 12 - 20 UT, July 14, 2000 GOES X-ray Data + GOES X-Ray FLUX, July 12-14, 2000 - showing X5.6 flare ACE Data + MAG and SWEPAM data, 23 UT, July 13 - 23, UT July 14, 2000 NOAA Satellite Environment Plot + Satellite Environment plot, July 12-14, 2000 + High energy proton plot, July 12-14, 2000 + GOES Electron Flux plot, July 12-14, 2000 + GOES Magnetometer Plot (1 min), July 12-14, 2000 + Kp, July 12-14, 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ July 14 EVENT SUMMARY - in progress BLAST OF SOLAR PARTICLES IS THE MOST INTENSE EVER SEEN BY SOHO AND ACE SPACECRAFT; AURORAS, MAGNETIC STORMS MAY BE ON THE WAY An explosion on the Sun this morning has already smacked Earth's magnetosphere with the most intense blast of solar particles ever detected by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Advanced Composition Explorer Spacecraft (ACE). The particles were produced by an intense solar flare and by an accompanying explosion of solar plasma, known as a coronal mass ejection. The wave of solar particles - known as a solar energetic particle event (SEP) - is already four times more intense than any other event detected since the great SEP event of October 1989, the peak of the last solar maximum. At mid-afternoon today, the storm of particles from the Sun was still intensifying. Large solar particle events have in the past been associated with failures and disruptions of satellite electronics (known as single event upsets, or SEUs). The solar flare -- one of the brightest ever seen by SOHO - originated near the center of the solar disk, and its brightness peaked at 10:24 UT (6:24 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time). It has been categorized as an X-class flare, a classification reserved for the most powerful flares. Flares accelerate subatomic particles in the solar atmosphere out into space, and those particles produce bright spots and streaks in SOHO images when they impact the spacecraft's instruments. This flare produced a particle deluge so intense that the image from SOHO was temporarily lost in a blizzard of specks. It has also saturated many of the particle detectors on NASA's ACE and Wind spacecraft. The flare was accompanied by an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the Sun at approximately 1775 kilometers per second (about 4 million miles an hour). An interplanetary shock wave, rippling through the solar wind in front of the storm, was estimated to be moving at 1300 to 1600 km/s (2.9 to 3.6 million miles an hour). The arrival at Earth of this massive electrified gas cloud may cause vivid auroral (northern and southern lights) displays Saturday or Sunday, depending on the direction of the storm and the orientation of its magnetic field. At 3 p.m. Eastern time on July 14, the NOAA Space Environment Center declared that a G2 geomagnetic storm was already in progress, and that solar radiation storms and radio blackouts had already begun. NOAA space weather forecasters predicted that "the CME will impact the Earth's magnetic field on Saturday afternoon and will cause a geomagnetic storm that is expected to reach category G3 (strong) to G4 (severe) levels. The radiation and geomagnetic storms are expected to produce adverse effects on spacecraft operations, power systems, high-frequency radio communications, and low-frequency navigation signals. In addition, the geomagnetic storm is expected to produce aurora displays that will be visible over much of the U.S." NASA's ACE, Polar, IMAGE, and Wind satellites will monitor the solar storm as it passes Earth. CMEs typically disturb Earth's magnetic field, distorting its shape like a jellyfish buffeted by a strong current. This interaction energizes the electrically charged particles naturally trapped in Earth's magnetosphere, causing the eerie auroral displays. The Polar spacecraft provides a large scale, global view of this activity from its unique orbit over Earth's poles. From Kevin Schenk (SOHO/LASCO & EIT) LASCO and EIT observed a full halo CME today, 2000/07/14. The event was first visible in C2 at 10:54 UT, as a bright front extending all around the occulting disk. The measured speed averaged through 4 points in both the C2 and the C3 field before saturation from particles was 1775 km/sec at PA 262 (SW limb). This speed may not be accurate due to limitations of the level of the Proton event in view. EIT observed a flare from AR9077 with wave at 10:12 UT near disk center at location [N16.8;E0.21]. GOES reports an X5.7 class flare event from this same area starting at 10:03 UT. This HALO CME was problably associated with this flare. From Joe Gurman(SOHO/EIT) There was an X5.7 flare from AR 9077 near central meridian today, with peak soft X-ray emission at ~ 10:24 UT. Connected with this event there is a clear EIT wave, and, I suspect, a halo CME, though the latter may be difficult to detect, since there is a very strong solar energetic particle (SEP) event connected with the flare/CME in progress, producing a near whiteout of LASCO images. We should be able to see a halo in C3 later if not in C2 in the first couple of hours after the event. In any case, the EIT movie is _quite_ impressive, and this one, though mainly in the northern hemisphere, is headed straight toward a planet near you. No guarantee of geoeffectiveness, obviously, since we don't know the direction of B_z. From Patrick McIntosh(HELIOSYNOPTICS, Boulder, CO) High activity period extended by strong active region now at SE limb An important activity complex rotating into view at s15 east limb will add Significant flare and cme activity to the three flare sources now on the Solar disk. A large cme at s15 early today corresponds to the location of Returning regions 9058/9064. Coronal structure along the entire east limb Has been very complex for the past two days. Late today a broad system of high loops developed near s15 with bright Emission in fexv at the top of the loops. The loops reached their peak Intensity near 1650 ut at the time of an m2 long-duration xray flare that Had a gradual rise. This event indicates a flare source at least a full day Behind the limb. The brightest part of the flare which produced the loops Was probably occulted by the limb and, therefore, the flare was much more Intense than m2. This region may be more important than region 9077 (n17 e15) which produced Two class x events in the past two days. Region 9077 continues to evolve new and complex sunspot structures, Intensifying the high magnetic-field gradient within its delta Configuration. The sunspot umbrae are linear and curved as in past Proton-flare sunspot groups. A low-intensity proton event is in progress From flares in this region. Additional major xray events are expected here. Proton fluence will increase during the next week as this region rotates Toward a position with direct connection to the earth's location. A strong delta configuration also persists in region 9070 at n10 w65 where An m5 flare occurred today. Spot growth is continuing near the delta. A Class m5 to x2 event may occur before this region rotates over the west Limb. Significant proton fluence would occur with such an event. The chain of four bipolar regions now crossing the sw limb includes a weak Delta configuration and complex surrounding fields that could generate a Major xray event. This activity complex is weakening, however. From SEC/NOAA GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: Due to the expected arrival of an earth-directed full halo CME from the x5/3b event, the geomagnetic field is expected to see an increase during the latter half of the first day. Major to severe storm levels are possible after the storm onset through the second day of the period. By late on the third day of the period activity should start to decrease to active to minor storm conditions. From Daniel Berdichevsky (ISTP/SPOF) There is an extremely powerful interplanetary shock that may have originated close to the Sun's Equator. Very preliminary estimates of the shock speed using metric Type II radio bursts puts its speed at 1300-1600 km/s. These conditions are observed after a fast forward interplanetary shock passed Earth at approximately 1539UT, July 14, 2000. It is highly possibly that extraordinarily hazardous radiation conditions at high altitude may be encountered now and will persist until after the passage of an extremely powerful interplanetary shock. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Other Links of Interest: ISTP Program Homepage SOHO Homepage ISTP Public Outreach and Education Page NOAA, Today's Space Weather ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Author and curator: * Nicky Fox, (301) 286-8872 Official NASA Contact: Mr. William Mish (wmish@istp1.gsfc.nasa.gov) / NASA Home / Goddard Space Flight Center Home / Last Updated: 07/14/00