Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 12, 2000 at 03:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was active to minor storm on July 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 426 and 557 km/sec. A solar wind shock was observed at 11:25 UTC at ACE, probably related to a halo CME observed late on July 8. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 241.6, the planetary A index was 31 (3-hour K indices: 4545 5445, Boulder K indices: 3545 4435). Region 9066 reemerged with a few spots but will rotate off the visible disk late today. Region 9067 was quiet and stable and rotated over the west limb early on July 12. Region 9068 was mostly quiet and stable. Region 9069 developed further and could produce minor M class flares. Region 9070 developed slowly and became significantly more complex as 3 separate magnetic delta configurations emerged. The region has major flare producing potential, an isolated X class flare is possible. Region 9073 developed slowly and could produce minor M class flares. Region 9074 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9076 was quiet and stable. Region 9077 developed slowly and still has a strong magnetic delta configuration. Another major X class flare is possible over the next few days. Regions 9078, 9079 and 9080 were quiet and stable. New region 9081 rotated into view at the northeast limb at a low latitude, magnetograms suggest the region could develop beta-gamma characteristics (mixing of the magnetic fields). New region 9082 emerged in the southeast quadrant. New region 9083 emerged in the southwest quadrant. Further active regions are at or approaching the east limb and will rotate into view today and tomorrow. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C, 2 M and 1 X class events were observed on July 11. Region 9070 produced a C7.6 flare at 03:48, a C4.7 flare at 07:57, an M1.1 flare at 18:58 and a C7.3 flare at 21:06 UTC. Region 9077 generated a C5.7 flare at 06:47, an M4.2 flare at 11:41 and a long duration X1.0/2N event peaking at 13:10 UTC. A very large full halo coronal mass ejection was observed in connection with the X1 event. The CME will impact Earth, most likely sometime between noon on July 13 and noon on July 14. This could result in active to severe storming. A long duration M1.3 event peaked at 03:25 UTC on July 12. July 10: Region 9077 produced a long duration major M5.7/2B event peaking at 21:42 UTC. Strong type II and IV sweeps were recorded during the major flare. A full halo coronal mass ejection was observed in LASCO C3 starting at 22:18 UTC. Most of the mass headed off towards the northeast, however, there is a possibility for minor or major storming at Earth on July 13 or 14. July 9: A weak type II sweep was recorded just after 11h UTC and was probably related to the observation of a full halo CME just before 12h UTC. As LASCO EIT images were unavailable at that time, it is hard to tell if the CME was caused by front or back side activity. If the source was on the visible disk the CME could impact Earth on July 12. The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole just to the west of region 9077 will rotate into a geoeffective position on July 12 or 13 and could cause unsettled to active intervals on July 15 or 16. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on July 12 and unsettled to major or severe storm on July 13-14. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9065 20000629 N24W78 plage 9066 20000629 3 N14W78 0050 CSO 9067 20000629 1 S18W87 0100 HSX 9068 20000701 11 S17W69 0230 DAI 9069 20000701 24 S17W51 0430 FAI beta-gamma 9070 20000702 21 N19W52 0400 FKI beta-gamma-delta 9072 20000705 N16W63 plage 9073 20000705 24 S19W35 0240 EAI beta-gamma 9074 20000705 N13W11 plage 9075 20000706 N06E04 plage 9076 20000706 3 S23E07 0010 CSO 9077 20000707 41 N18E33 1010 FKC beta-gamma-delta 9078 20000707 3 S14E14 0010 HRX 9079 20000709 1 S28E39 0070 HAX 9080 20000709 1 N26E53 0050 HAX 9081 20000711 5 N02E69 0100 DSO 9082 20000711 1 S12E39 0010 AXX 9083 20000711 2 S18W21 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 141 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.3 (+1.2) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.5 (+3.2) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 (110.9 predicted, -0.1) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 (113.7 predicted, +2.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 (117.9 predicted, +4.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (120.0 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (120.8 predicted, +0.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 2000.07 188.9 (1) 76.2 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]