Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 9, 2000 at 04:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 341 and 390 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 210.0, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2212 2321, Boulder K indices: 2212 2321). Region 9065 once again decayed into spotless plage. Region 9066 was quiet and stable, as was region 9067. Region 9068 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Occasional C flares and minor M flares are possible. Region 9069 developed quickly early in the day, further C flares are possible, and there is a minor chance of a small M flare. Region 9070 is complex, hot, and could produce M class flares as well as significant CMEs. Region 9071 was quiet and stable. Region 9073 developed slowly and has become more complex. Further C flares are very likely and there is a possibility of isolated M flares. Region 9074 reemerged with a few spots. Region 9075 decayed slowly and is spotless early on July 9. Region 9076 was quiet and stable. Region 9077 rotated fully into view and is a complex region capable of producing M class flares. Region 9078 was quiet and stable. An active region is rotating into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 13 C class events were observed on July 8. Region 9070 produced a C1.4 flare at 01:29, a C2.1 flare at 01:57, a C6.0/1N flare at 07:34, a C3.1/1F flare at 13:26 and a C2.4 flare at 16:31 UTC. Additionally there was some interesting eruptive activity in the region at the very end of the day and early on July 9. A halo CME may have been a result of this activity. Region 9073 generated a C2.1 flare at 06:31, a C2.3 flare at 08:32 and a C4.5 flare at 13:08 UTC. Region 9069 was the source of a C2.9 flare at 15:21 UTC. A C4.6 flare at 20:52 and a C4.0 flare at 21:50 were optically unaccounted. July 7: The most interesting event of the day was a long duration C5.6 event just west of region 9070. This was actually a large filament eruption near the central meridian and stretching from the solar equator until just northwest of region 9071. The event started at 08:42 and ended at 10:11 UTC. A large full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 images starting from 10:26 UTC. Earth will receive an impact, probably on July 10, unsettled to major storming is likely. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 9. A CME impact is expected sometime between late on July 9 and early on July 11 and could cause unsettled to major storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9065 20000629 N24W39 plage 9066 20000629 5 N13W43 0010 CRO 9067 20000629 1 S19W44 0190 HAX 9068 20000701 34 S18W28 0390 EKC 9069 20000701 15 S18W11 0140 DAO 9070 20000702 38 N19W11 0340 EAC beta-gamma 9071 20000705 6 N22W62 0040 CRO 9072 20000705 N16W24 plage 9073 20000705 23 S19E04 0150 EAO beta-gamma 9074 20000705 4 N13E30 0010 BXO 9075 20000706 1 N06E43 0000 AXX 9076 20000706 1 S22E46 0030 HSX 9077 20000707 10 N18E64 0410 FKI beta-gamma 9078 20000707 2 S13E57 0030 HRX Total number of sunspots: 140 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (110.9 predicted, -0.1) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (113.7 predicted, +2.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (117.9 predicted, +4.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (120.0 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (120.8 predicted, +0.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 2000.07 172.6 (1) 51.2 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]