Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 8, 2000 at 04:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 368 and 426 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 187.1, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 2213 3323, Boulder K indices: 2123 2222). Region 9062 was quiet and stable and is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9065 reemerged with a couple of spots. Region 9066 was quiet and stable, as was region 9067. Region 9068 became more complex and magnetic gradients increased. Although the region was quiet occasional M flares are possible. Region 9069 was quiet and stable, however, the region is developing quickly early on July 8. C class flares are likely today. Region 9070 is fairly complex and has M class flaring potential. Region 9071 is a small region with tight magnetic gradients. Further C and M flares are possible. Region 9072 decayed into spotless plage, as did region 9074. Region 9073 is developing slowly and could soon start producing C flares or even minor M flares. Region 9075 was quiet and stable, as was region 9076. New region 9077 rotated partly into view at the northeast limb, the region appears capable of producing minor M flares. New region 9078 rotated partly into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class and 2 M class events were observed on July 7. Region 9071 produced two M1.3 events, first a long duration event peaking at 11:05 UTC, then a 1B flare at 18:19 UTC. The first event was accompanied by a type II sweep. The region was the source of a C3.3 flare at 05:52 and a C4.1 flare at 21:56 UTC. The most interesting event of the day was, however, a long duration C5.6 event just west of region 9070. This was actually a large filament eruption near the central meridian and stretching from the solar equator until just northwest of region 9071. The event started at 08:42 and ended at 10:11 UTC. A large full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 images starting from 10:26 UTC. Earth will receive an impact on July 10, unsettled to major storming is likely, severe storming is possible at high latitudes. Region 9070 produced a C2.0 flare at 00:30 and a C5.0 flare at 02:05 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 8. A CME impact is expected sometime between late on July 9 and late on July 10 and could cause unsettled to major storm conditions, possibly even with isolated severe storm intervals. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9062 20000625 4 S16W86 0080 CSO 9065 20000629 2 N24W26 0010 BXO 9066 20000629 2 N12W30 0020 CRO 9067 20000629 2 S20W30 0150 CAO 9068 20000701 25 S18W15 0270 EAC 9069 20000701 3 S12W07 0010 BXO 9070 20000702 31 N18E03 0320 EAC beta-gamma 9071 20000705 7 N23W48 0050 CRO 9072 20000705 N16W11 plage 9073 20000705 11 S20E18 0060 DAO 9074 20000705 N11E36 plage 9075 20000706 2 N06E54 0010 BXO 9076 20000706 1 S22E59 0030 HSX 9077 20000707 4 N18E72 0100 DSO 9078 20000707 2 S13E74 0040 CAO Total number of sunspots: 96 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (110.9 predicted, -0.1) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (113.7 predicted, +2.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (117.9 predicted, +4.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (120.0 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (120.8 predicted, +0.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 2000.07 167.3 (1) 42.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]