Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 6, 2000 at 05:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on July 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 427 and 481 km/sec. A weak coronal stream related disturbance was in progress most of the day. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 168.7, the planetary A index was 13 (3-hour K indices: 2134 3421, Boulder K indices: 2134 3312). Region 9061 was quiet and stable and will rotate off the visible disk on July 7. Region 9062 decayed slowly and was quiet. Regions 9063 and 9065 both decayed and could become spotless today. Region 9066 was quiet and stable, as was region 9067. Region 9068 was mostly unchanged and could generate occasional C and minor M class flares. Region 9069 was quiet and stable. Region 9070 developed quickly and now has a weak magnetic delta configuration. Magnetic gradients are fairly strong as well. C and M class flaring is likely from this region over the next several days. New region 9071 emerged in the northwest quadrant. New region 9072 emerged in the northeast quadrant. New region 9073 emerged in the southeast quadrant while new region 9074 emerged near the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were observed on July 5. Region 9071 produced a C1.0 flare at 20:04 UTC. Region 9070 generated a C1.3 flare at 20:43 UTC. July 4: A filament eruption was observed in LASCO EIT images starting at 22:24 UTC to the north of region 9068 in the southeast quadrant. A weak type II sweep was recorded following the eruption and a partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 images starting at 23:25 UTC. Most of the material was observed below the south pole and the southeast limb. The CME could impact Earth on July 7 or 8 and could cause unsettled to active intervals. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole stretching from the equator and well into the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on July 3-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on July 6-7 due to a coronal stream. A CME could impact the magnetosphere on July 7 or 8 and cause the geomagnetic field to become unsettled to minor storm. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9060 20000624 S33W82 plage 9061 20000624 1 S13W75 0040 HSX 9062 20000625 3 S16W61 0150 DSO 9063 20000626 2 N27W73 0000 AXX 9065 20000629 1 N23W02 0000 AXX 9066 20000629 4 N11W03 0030 CAO 9067 20000629 1 S21W04 0230 HAX 9068 20000701 23 S19E11 0200 DAO 9069 20000701 2 S14E19 0020 HAX 9070 20000702 22 N17E29 0310 DAI beta-gamma-delta 9071 20000705 5 N22W23 0010 BXO 9072 20000705 2 N15E16 0000 AXX 9073 20000705 3 S21E44 0020 BXO 9074 20000705 1 N10E64 0000 AXX Total number of sunspots: 70 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (110.9 predicted, -0.1) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (113.7 predicted, +2.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (117.9 predicted, +4.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (120.0 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (120.8 predicted, +0.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 2000.07 161.8 (1) 28.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]