Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 5, 2000 at 06:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 352 and 482 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 158.4, the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour K indices: 3212 3332, Boulder K indices: 2212 3221). Regions 9057 and 9061 were quiet and stable, region 9057 is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9062 was mostly unchanged and could produce occasional C class flares. Regions 9063, 9065 and 9066 were quiet and stable, as was region 9067. Region 9068 developed slowly and could generate C and minor M class flares. Region 9069 was quiet and stable. Region 9070 developed slowly and could produce additional C class flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C class events were observed on July 4. Region 9062 produced a C2.0/1F long duration event peaking at 00:34 UTC. Region 9068 generated a C1.3 flare at 08:26 and a C2.3 flare at 15:01 UTC. Region 9070 was the source of a C3.4 flare at 15:20 UTC. A filament eruption was observed in LASCO EIT images starting at 22:24 UTC to the north of region 9068 in the southeast quadrant. A weak type II sweep was recorded following the eruption and a partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 images starting at 23:25 UTC. Most of the material was observed below the south pole and the southeast limb. The CME could impact Earth on July 7 or 8. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole stretching from the equator and well into the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on July 3-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 5. Unsettled to active is likely on July 6-7 due to a coronal stream. A CME could impact the magnetosphere on July 7 or 8 and cause the geomagnetic field to become unsettled to minor storm. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9057 20000622 1 N16W86 0120 HSX 9060 20000624 S33W69 plage 9061 20000624 2 S13W61 0060 CSO 9062 20000625 7 S16W46 0220 CAO 9063 20000626 2 N27W59 0010 AXX 9065 20000629 1 N22E13 0010 HSX 9066 20000629 10 N12E12 0060 DSO 9067 20000629 1 S20E09 0210 HAX 9068 20000701 24 S20E26 0210 DAO 9069 20000701 1 S14E33 0050 HAX 9070 20000702 15 N18E44 0090 DAO Total number of sunspots: 65 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (110.9 predicted, -0.1) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (113.7 predicted, +2.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (117.9 predicted, +4.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (120.0 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (120.8 predicted, +0.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 2000.07 160.8 (1) 17.0 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]