Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 4, 2000 at 03:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 310 and 403 km/sec. A weak disturbance arrived at 08:50 at ACE and caused the geomagnetic field to become unsettled for the remainder of the day. Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 156.3, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 2223 3333, Boulder K indices: 1233 2212). Regions 9055 and 9056 were quiet and stable, both regions have rotated over the west limb. Regions 9057 and 9061 were quiet and stable. Region 9062 decayed slowly and may be capable of producing occasional C and minor M class flares. Region 9063 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region could become spotless today. Regions 9065 and 9066 were quiet and stable, as was region 9067. Region 9068 was mostly unchanged and could generate C and minor M class flares. Regions 9069 and 9070 were quiet and stable. Flares and CMEs No flaring of interest was observed on July 3. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole stretching from the equator and well into the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on July 3-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 4-5. Unsettled to active is likely on July 6-7. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9055 20000621 1 N21W88 0010 HRX 9056 20000621 1 S11W92 0110 HSX 9057 20000622 1 N15W74 0170 HSX 9060 20000624 S33W56 plage 9061 20000624 1 S13W48 0060 HSX 9062 20000625 14 S16W32 0230 CKO 9063 20000626 2 N26W50 0010 BXO 9065 20000629 4 N22E25 0040 CSO 9066 20000629 6 N12E23 0070 DSO 9067 20000629 1 S20E22 0200 HSX 9068 20000701 13 S19E38 0200 DAO 9069 20000701 1 S14E47 0050 HSX 9070 20000702 1 N18E57 0030 HSX Total number of sunspots: 46 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (110.9 predicted, -0.1) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (113.7 predicted, +2.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (117.9 predicted, +4.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (120.0 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (120.8 predicted, +0.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 2000.07 160.8 (1) 17.0 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]