Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 2, 2000 at 05:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 361 and 471 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 163.7, the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour K indices: 3232 2232, Boulder K indices: 3232 1132). Region 9054 became unstable, however, the region is rotating over the west limb. Regions 9055, 9056, 9057 and 9061 were quiet and stable. Region 9062 decayed slowly and could produce C and minor M class flares. Region 9063 decayed slowly and was quiet. Regions 9065 and 9066 were quiet and stable. Region 9067 could produce further C class flares. Regions 9068 and 9069 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C flares and 1 M flare were observed on July 1. Region 9067 produced a C2.3 flare at 00:31 and a C1.1 flare at 21:39 UTC. Region 9064 generated a C6.0 flare at 12:41 and an M1.5 flare at 23:25 UTC. Region 9068 was the source of a C1.5 flare at 22:24 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole near the equator will rotate into a geoeffective position on July 3 and could cause a few unsettled to active intervals on July 6. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 2-3. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9054 20000620 2 N13W81 0130 DSO 9055 20000621 1 N23W58 0040 HSX 9056 20000621 1 S12W64 0170 HSX 9057 20000622 1 N16W46 0180 HSX 9059 20000623 N16W77 plage 9060 20000624 S33W30 plage 9061 20000624 1 S13W22 0050 HSX 9062 20000625 21 S16W04 0310 DKI 9063 20000626 9 N26W22 0040 CSO 9065 20000629 1 N20E50 0050 HSX 9066 20000629 11 N13E55 0090 CSO 9067 20000629 1 S20E47 0210 HSX 9068 20000701 5 S19E63 0070 DSO 9069 20000701 1 S13E70 0040 HSX Total number of sunspots: 55 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (111.9 predicted, +0.9) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (115.4 predicted, +3.5) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (119.1 predicted, +3.7) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (121.3 predicted, +2.2) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (122.1 predicted, +0.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 2000.07 163.7 (1) 5.6 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]