Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 1, 2000 at 06:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly unsettled on June 30. Solar wind speed ranged between 358 and 429 km/sec. A fairly weak coronal stream based disturbance started early on July 1. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 159.6, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2113 2232, Boulder K indices: 1112 2222). Region 9054 was quiet and stable and will rotate off the visible disk on July 2. Regions 9055, 9056 and 9057 were quiet and stable. Region 9061 was quiet and stable. Region 9062 developed further and could produce C and minor M class flares. Region 9063 did not change significantly and could generate occasional C flares. Regions 9065, 9066 and 9067 were quiet and stable. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C flares were observed on June 30, none of them were optically correlated to any of the active regions on the visible disk. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole near the central meridian will rotate into a geoeffective position on July 3. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 30. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9054 20000620 11 N13W72 0250 EAO 9055 20000621 1 N22W47 0050 HSX 9056 20000621 1 S12W50 0200 HSX 9057 20000622 3 N15W34 0230 CHO 9059 20000623 N16W64 plage 9060 20000624 S33W17 plage 9061 20000624 1 S13W08 0070 HSX 9062 20000625 22 S16E09 0400 DKO 9063 20000626 13 N26W10 0070 EAO 9065 20000629 1 N20E63 0080 HSX 9066 20000629 5 N13E63 0110 CAO 9067 20000629 1 S20E60 0180 HSX Total number of sunspots: 59 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.05 148.4 106.3 90.5 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 (111.2 predicted, +0.3) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (112.4 predicted, +1.2) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (115.8 predicted, +3.4) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (119.6 predicted, +3.8) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (121.7 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 2000.06 179.8 (1) 189.4 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]