Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 29, 2000 at 04:40 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 429 and 510 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 175.3, the planetary A index was 14 (3-hour K indices: 4423 2324, Boulder K indices: 3321 2433). Region 9054 was quiet and stable, minor M class flares are possible. Regions 9055, 9056 and 9057 were quiet and stable. Region 9058 decayed slightly but remains capable of generating a minor M class flare. The region is rotating over the west limb. Region 9059 was quiet and stable. Region 9060 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9061 was quiet and stable. Region 9062 developed further and could produce C and minor M class flares. Region 9063 developed further and has a fair possibility of producing an M flare. Region 9064 was quiet and stable and will rotate off the visible disk late today. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C flares were observed on June 28. Region 9051 at the west limb seemed to be the origin of a C3.7 long duration event peaking at 19:10 UTC, this was a small proton producing event as well. A weak type II sweep was recorded in connection with the event, the associated CME was not very impressive. An optically unassigned C6.1 flare was observed at 12:19 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on June 28 and could cause a few unsettled to active intervals in July 1. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 29 and quiet to unsettled on June 30. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9051 20000617 N13W83 plage 9053 20000619 N04W71 plage 9054 20000620 18 N14W46 0290 EAI 9055 20000621 1 N21W21 0080 HSX 9056 20000621 1 S12W25 0210 HSX 9057 20000622 4 N14W06 0290 CHO 9058 20000623 5 S13W81 0310 EKO 9059 20000623 2 N16W38 0000 AXX 9060 20000624 S33E09 plage 9061 20000624 1 S14E18 0070 HSX 9062 20000625 14 S17E34 0360 DKO 9063 20000626 16 N25E16 0090 DSO 9064 20000627 4 S19W79 0020 BXO Total number of sunspots: 66 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.05 148.4 106.3 90.5 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 (111.2 predicted, +0.3) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (112.4 predicted, +1.2) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (115.8 predicted, +3.4) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (119.6 predicted, +3.8) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (121.7 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 2000.06 181.1 (1) 177.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]