Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 19, 2000 at 04:45 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 361 and 480 km/sec. A weak and short lasting coronal stream arrived at approximately 18h UTC at ACE. Solar wind parameters indicate a disturbance is approaching Earth. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 187.6, the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour K indices: 2122 3343, Boulder K indices: 2113 2342). Region 9033 rotated off the visible disk early in the day. Another major flare could be observed today while the region is just behind the west limb. Region 9036 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9037 was quiet and stable, the region is spotless early on June 19. Region 9040 was quiet and stable. Region 9042 decayed slowly and was quiet. Occasional M class flares are possible. Region 9045 reemerged with a few spots but is spotless again early on June 19. Region 9046 developed many new spots and is the region on the disk with the best chance of producing an M flare. Region 9047 reemerged with a few spots but like region 9045 it is spotless again early on June 19. Region 9048 developed slowly and could produce C flares and maybe a minor M flare. Region 9049 was quiet and stable. Region 9050 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9051 was quiet and stable. New region 9052 emerged in the southwest quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C flares and 1 X flare were observed on June 18. Region 9033 produced an X1.0 impulsive flare at 01:59 UTC. A strong type II sweep was detected after the flare but the CME off the west limb was not very impressive. June 15: Region 9041 was the source of an M1.8/2N long duration event peaking at 19:57 UTC. A weak type II sweep was detected in association with the LDE. A fairly wide partial halo coronal mass ejection was observed mainly off the west limb and the north pole. There is a chance Earth could receive a minor impact from the CME on June 18 or 19. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on June 19 as a weak CME impact is expected. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9033 20000605 1 N25W85 0000 AXX 9036 20000608 2 S20W57 0150 HSX 9037 20000610 1 N22W52 0010 HRX 9040 20000611 6 N20W17 0050 CSO 9042 20000612 42 N21E03 0470 FKI beta-gamma 9043 20000613 N25W64 plage 9045 20000614 3 S17W33 0010 BXO 9046 20000614 30 N19E31 0580 DKI beta-gamma 9047 20000615 3 S27W04 0010 BXO 9048 20000616 11 N06W40 0090 DAO 9049 20000616 8 S38E41 0040 CSO 9050 20000617 7 S15W08 0020 DSO 9051 20000617 1 N16E49 0010 HRX 9052 20000618 5 S29W10 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 120 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.05 148.4 106.3 90.5 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 (111.2 predicted, +0.3) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (112.4 predicted, +1.2) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (115.8 predicted, +3.4) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (119.6 predicted, +3.8) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (121.7 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 2000.06 182.9 (1) 113.7 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]