Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 14, 2000 at 03:45 UTC. Minor update posted at 07:19 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on June 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 419 and 582 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 199.2, the planetary A index was 16 (3-hour K indices: 3344 4333, Boulder K indices: 2344 3323). Region 9026 was quiet and stable and will rotate off the visible disk early on June 15. Region 9030 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9033 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region could produce a minor M flare. Region 9034 was quiet and stable, as was region 9035. Region 9036 was mostly unchanged and has minor M flare potential. Region 9037 gained a few spots but decreased in area. A minor M class flare is a possibility. Region 9038 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9039 did not change significantly and could still produce C flares and perhaps a minor M flare. Region 9040 was quiet and stable. Region 9041 was mostly unchanged and has minor M class flaring potential. Region 9042 has fairly tight magnetic gradients and should continue to produce C flare. Isolated M flares are possible. New region 9043 emerged in the northeast quadrant near the central meridian. New region 9044 emerged in the southwest quadrant. Comment added at 07:19 UTC: Another disturbance is in progress. At 06h UTC the interplanetary magnetic field at ACE suddenly strengthened and swung moderately southwards. The geomagnetic field is likely to become active and there is a chance of isolated minor storming. Region 9042 is now the largest region on the solar dis and could be capable of major flaring. An active region is emerging in the southeast quadrant and has several spots already. Flares and CMEs A total of 8 C class flares were observed on June 13. Region 9042 produced a C1.8 flare at 05:13, a C2.3 flare at 08:17 and a C2.0 flare at 17:14 UTC. Region 9041 generated a C3.0 flare at 10:33 and a long duration C4.1 event peaking at 13:50 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 14 and quiet to unsettled on June 15. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9026 20000601 1 N22W75 0150 HSX 9030 20000603 N13W75 plage 9032 20000605 S17W63 plage 9033 20000605 34 N24W23 0390 FKI beta-gamma 9034 20000606 1 S09W25 0070 HSX 9035 20000608 3 S14W54 0000 BXO 9036 20000608 12 S22E13 0240 DAO 9037 20000610 16 N21E10 0180 DSO 9038 20000611 4 N16W57 0020 CRO 9039 20000611 15 N08W37 0110 DAO 9040 20000611 2 N18E47 0100 HAX 9041 20000611 11 N18W37 0150 DAO 9042 20000612 8 N20E69 0320 EAI beta-gamma 9043 20000613 4 N26E04 0020 CRO 9044 20000613 2 S24W27 0000 BXO Total number of sunspots: 113 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.05 148.4 106.3 90.5 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 (111.2 predicted, +0.3) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (112.4 predicted, +1.2) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (115.8 predicted, +3.4) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (119.6 predicted, +3.8) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (121.7 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 2000.06 177.7 (1) 72.7 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]