Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 10, 2000 at 04:45 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on June 10. Solar wind speed ranged between 459 and 682 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 179.6, the planetary A index was 25 (3-hour K indices: 4355 4333, Boulder K indices: 3455 3332). Region 9026 decayed quickly. Further M class flares are still possible, particularly if a large filament within the region erupts. Region 9030 developed slowly and could soon begin to produce C flares. Region 9032 was quiet and stable. Region 9033 was quiet and mostly unchanged. The region could produce isolated M class flares. Region 9034 was quiet and stable, as was region 9035. Region 9036 is developing slowly and has minor M flare potential. New region 9037 emerged near the northeast limb. The region developed quickly late in the day and early on June 11. Magnetograms indicate that this an interesting region with closely separated polarities. C class flares could be observed today. Several other new active regions are emerging. Comment added at 21:01 UTC on June 10: Region 9026 was the source of a major M5.2/3B long duration proton flare at 17:02 UTC. The above 100 MeV proton flux peaked at 1.6 pfu, the above 50 MeV flux peaked at the 6 pfu level while the above 10 MeV flux is still in progress and has reached the 42 pfu level as I write this. A strong type II sweep was observed as well as a coronal mass ejection, mainly off the west limb but could develop into a partial halo CME. Flares and CMEs A total of 4 C class flares and 1 M flare were observed on June 10. Region 9036 produced a C1.8 flare at 12:22 UTC as well as several sub flares. Region 9026 was the source of a major M5.2/3B long duration proton flare at 17:02 UTC. The above 100 MeV proton flux peaked at 1.6 pfu, the above 50 MeV flux peaked at the 6 pfu level while the above 10 MeV flux peaked at the 43 pfu level. A strong type II sweep was observed as well as a full halo coronal mass ejection. Most of the material was visible at the west limb and above the north pole. Earth will likely receive an impact from this CME on June 13. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 11 and quiet to unsettled on June 12. The arrival of a CME on June 13 could cause unsettled to major storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9026 20000601 6 N22W40 0200 EAO 9030 20000603 10 N12W39 0040 DAO 9032 20000605 5 S16W28 0020 CSO 9033 20000605 43 N22E17 0560 FKC beta-gamma 9034 20000606 5 S10E15 0070 CSO 9035 20000608 6 S17W12 0030 CAO 9036 20000608 9 S24E52 0220 CAO 9037 20000610 1 N18E51 0020 HSX Total number of sunspots: 85 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.05 148.4 106.3 90.5 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 (111.2 predicted, +0.3) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (112.4 predicted, +1.2) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (115.8 predicted, +3.4) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (119.6 predicted, +3.8) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (121.7 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 2000.06 173.2 (1) 49.3 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]