Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 8, 2000 at 04:45 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 428 and 562 km/sec under the influence of a weak coronal stream most of the day. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 180.3, the planetary A index was 14 (3-hour K indices: 2243 3334, Boulder K indices: 2233 3334). Region 9024 is decaying slowly but could still produce C flares before rotating out of view on June 9. Region 9026 has been very complex for several days. Early on June 8 the region has developed many new spots. At the same time the magnetic delta within the main penumbra is weakening and this could lead to less intense flares. M class flares are still very likely and there is a small chance of another X class flare. Region 9028 developed slowly and could produce C flares. Region 9030 reemerged with a single spot. Region 9031 decayed slowly and does not seem likely to repeat the M flare before rotating over the west limb late today. Region 9032 was quiet and mostly stable. Region 9033 has been developing quickly since late on June 7 and could soon produce an M class flare. Region 9034 was quiet and stable. The above 10 MeV proton flux has so far reached the 46 pfu mark, the proton event should peak sometime today. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C flares, 1 M flare and 1 X flare were observed on June 7. Region 9031 produced a C2.8 flare at 04:02 and an M2.2/1B long duration event peaking at 04:42 UTC. Region 9026 generated a C2.1 flare at 12:01, a C1.7 flare at 12:33, a C2.1 flare at 21:21 and a major X1.2/3B flare at 15:53 UTC. The latter event was accompanied by a strong type II sweep and a weak type IV sweep as well as a full halo CME. The CME was not nearly as impressive as the one observed on June 6, however, it will impact Earth, probably on June 9, and cause active to major storming. June 6: Region 9026 produced a spectacular X2.3/2B long duration event peaking at 15:25 UTC. The event was accompanied by a strong type IV sweep and a moderately strong type II sweep. A very large, fast and magnificent full halo coronal mass ejection was observed in LASCO C2 images from 15:54 UTC. This CME will impact Earth sometime on June 8 and could cause the most significant geomagnetic storm so far in solar cycle 23. Major to very severe storming is likely and isolated extremely severe storm intervals (K=9) are possible. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to very severe storm on June 8. Active to severe storm is likely on June 9 with active to major storm possible on June 10. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9024 20000529 8 S14W70 0100 DAO 9026 20000601 28 N20W03 0630 FKC beta-gamma-delta 9027 20000601 N25W76 plage 9028 20000601 8 N14W52 0070 DAO 9030 20000603 1 N11E07 0000 AXX 9031 20000604 4 S32W78 0080 CAO 9032 20000605 6 S17E13 0030 DSO 9033 20000605 9 N22E55 0380 EKO 9034 20000606 1 S10E54 0090 HSX Total number of sunspots: 65 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.05 148.4 106.3 90.5 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.1 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.5 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.4 (+2.9) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.7 (+5.4) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 (111.2 predicted, +0.3) 2000.01 158.1 90.2 (112.4 predicted, +1.2) 2000.02 174.1 112.3 (115.8 predicted, +3.4) 2000.03 208.2 138.2 (119.6 predicted, +3.8) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (121.7 predicted, +2.1) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 2000.06 172.6 (1) 30.9 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]