:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2000 May 30 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
22 - 28 MAY 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. LOW ACTIVITY PREVAILED
MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT ROSE TO MODERATE LEVELS ON 24 MAY DUE TO AN
M1/SF FLARE AT 24/0546UT FROM REGION 8996 (S21, L = 345, CLASS/AREA
EKC/1280 ON 15 MAY) AND AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 AT 24/1152UT.
REGION 8996 WAS GRADUALLY DECAYING AT THE TIME OF THE FLARE.
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE NASA ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A
CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) SIGNATURE WAS OBSERVED DURING 23 - 25
MAY. THE CME SHOCK FRONT PASSED THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 23/1625UT
FOLLOWED BY INCREASED VELOCITIES, DENSITIES, AND IMF BZ VARIABILITY.
EARLY ON 24 MAY VELOCITIES PEAKED AT 730 KM/SEC AND DENSITIES PEAKED
AT 51 P/CC, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE. IMF BZ BECAME STRONGLY
SOUTHWARD EARLY ON 24 MAY WITH MAXIMUM DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 36 NT
(GSM). BZ REMAINED MOSTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDAY ON 26 MAY WITH A
RANGE OF MINUS 01 TO 05 NT. NOMINAL SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS WERE
OBSERVED BEGINNING MIDDAY ON 26 MAY.

THERE WERE NO PROTON EVENTS DETECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
INCREASED TO MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING 25 - 28 MAY.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING 23 - 26 MAY DUE TO
A CME PASSAGE AT EARTH. THE STORM BEGAN LATE ON 23 MAY, THEN
INTENSIFIED EARLY ON 24 MAY WITH MINOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS
DETECTED AT ALL LATITUDES. THE SEVERE STORM LEVELS OCCURRED DURING
24/0000 - 0600UT. MINOR TO MAJOR STORM PERIODS OCCURRED DURING 25 -
26 MAY AS THE DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY SUBSIDED. FIELD ACTIVITY
DECLINED TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AFTER 26/1200UT. THE
SOURCE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE BEEN A LONG-DURATION C7/1N
FLARE AT 20/0535UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED PARTIAL-HALO CME.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
31 MAY - 26 JUNE 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO VARY BETWEEN LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS.
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING 07 - 23 JUNE.

NO PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT  MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH 02 JUNE. NORMAL
TO MODERATE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ACTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED DURING 31 MAY, 12 - 13 JUNE AND 25 - 26
JUNE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BARRING AN
EARTH-DIRECTED CME.

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