:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2000 May 16 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
08 - 14 MAY 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WAS LOW
DURING 08-11 MAY. HOWEVER, THERE WERE A FEW INTERESTING EVENTS
DURING THIS INTERVAL INCLUDING A FEW LARGE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCES
ON MAY 08 FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISK, ONE OF WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIAL-HALO CME; AND A LONG-DURATION C8/2N
FLARE AT 10/1941UT WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS FROM
REGION 8990 (N14, L = 062, CLASS/AREA EKI/360 ON 13 MAY). ACTIVITY
INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING 12 - 14 MAY DUE TO ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES (SEE THE ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY FOR FLARE
TIMES). A 33-DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
ON 13 MAY. THERE WERE TWO LARGE, MODERATELY-COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUPS
PRESENT ON THE DISK AT THE END OF THE PERIOD INCLUDING REGION 8996
(S21, L = 343, CLASS/AREA EKI/1210 ON 13 MAY) AND REGION 9002 (N18,
L = 304, CLASS/AREA EHI/940 ON 15 MAY).

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE NASA ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A
TRANSIENT PASSED THE SPACECRAFT DURING 12 - 13 MAY, POSSIBLY DUE TO
THE PARTIAL-HALO CME OBSERVED ON 08 MAY. THE TRANSIENT PASSAGE WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED VELOCITIES (PEAKS TO 620 KM/SEC ON 13 MAY),
INCREASED DENSITIES (PEAK TO 25 P/CC ON 12 MAY), A SHIFT FROM A
TOWARD (NEGATIVE POLARITY) TO AN AWAY (POSITIVE POLARITY) SOLAR
SECTOR, AND INCREASED IMF BZ VARIABILITY WITH SOUTHWARD DEFLECTIONS
TO MINUS 13 NT (GSM).

THERE WERE NO PROTON EVENTS DETECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
THROUGH 11 MAY. ACTIVITY INCREASED DURING 12 - 14 MAY WITH
INTERMITTENT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DETECTED GLOBALLY.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
17 MAY - 12 JUNE 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO VARY BETWEEN LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS.
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE
PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT
A GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

A GEOMAGNETIC FIELD DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED DURING 18 - 19 MAY DUE TO
A HALO CME OBSERVED ON 15 MAY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS DISTURBANCE. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME.


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