:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2000 May 09 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
01 - 07 MAY 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM VERY LOW TO HIGH LEVELS. ACTIVITY WAS AT
MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH 03 MAY BY VIRTUE OF ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
M-CLASS FLARES, MOSTLY FROM REGIONS 8970 (S14, L = 262, CLASS/AREA
EKC/1210 ON 23 APRIL) AND 8971 (N18, L = 264, CLASS/AREA EKO/910 ON
24APRIL). BOTH REGIONS WERE LARGE WITH A MINOR DEGREE OF MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY AND SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY BEFORE CROSSING THE WEST LIMB ON
03 MAY. ACTIVITY INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS ON 04 MAY DUE TO AN M6
X-RAY FLARE FROM BEHIND THE WEST LIMB AT 04/1108UT. OLD REGION 8970
WAS THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR THIS EVENT. THE SAME WAS TRUE FOR A
LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE OBSERVED AT 05/1621UT. ACTIVITY DROPPED
TO VERY LOW LEVELS DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD.

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE NASA ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A
TRANSIENT PASSED THE SPACECRAFT AROUND 02/1000UT ASSOCIATED WITH A
VELOCITY JUMP FROM 600 TO 900 KM/SEC, A SOUTHWARD TURNING OF IMF BZ
WITH DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 09 NT (GSM), AND A MINOR DENSITY INCREASE.
A SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY PASSAGE (TOWARD (NEGATIVE POLARITY) TO AWAY
(POSITIVE POLARITY)) OCCURRED ON 07 MAY.

THERE WERE NO PROTON EVENTS DETECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BRIEFLY
REACHED HIGH LEVELS ON 03 MAY. OTHERWISE, FLUXES WERE AT NORMAL TO
MODERATE LEVELS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MILDLY DISTURBED DURING 01 - 05 MAY WITH
QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DETECTED GLOBALLY AND BRIEF ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. ACTIVITY DECLINED TO QUIET TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING 06 - 07 MAY.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
10 MAY - 05 JUNE 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO VARY BETWEEN LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS
WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.

NO PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

A GEOMAGNETIC FIELD DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED DURING 11 - 13 MAY IN
RESPONSE TO A PARTIAL-HALO CME OBSERVED ON 08 MAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE NEAR CENTRAL MERIDIAN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH MAJOR STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME.

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