Last update May 7, 2000 at 04:05 UTC.
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1954-2000 (last update April 12, 2000)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 417 and 458 km/sec.
Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 126.8 (the lowest since January 28 when 126.0 - the minimum solar flux this year - was recorded), the planetary A index was 12 (3-hour K indices: 3332 3222, Boulder K indices: 4332 2213). Regions 8976 and 8978 rotated off the visible disk. Regions 8980, 8981, 8982, 8983, 8984, 8985 and 8986 were quiet and stable. Region 8982 and 8985 are spotless early on May 7. A new region is emerging in the northeast quadrant near the central meridian.
No flaring was observed on May 6. A couple of CMEs were noted, one with an origin just behind the northeast limb, the other from having its origin behind the southeast limb.
Background proton fluxes were slightly above their normal level all day because of the huge backside proton flare in old region 8970 on May 5.
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 7-9. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
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|
|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
| Solar region | Date numbered | Actual no. sunspots | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8976 | 20000428 | 2 | S13W94 | 0030 | BXO | |
| 8979 | 20000428 | N21W57 | plage | |||
| 8980 | 20000428 | 7 | S17W34 | 0020 | CRO | |
| 8981 | 20000501 | 3 | S23W35 | 0010 | CRO | |
| 8982 | 20000503 | 3 | S19W19 | 0010 | CRO | |
| 8983 | 20000504 | 4 | N25E34 | 0030 | CSO | |
| 8984 | 20000505 | 3 | S14W04 | 0010 | BXO | |
| 8985 | 20000505 | 4 | N12E38 | 0020 | BXO | |
| 8986 | 20000505 | 5 | S19E32 | 0010 | BXO | |
| Total number of sunspots: | 31 | |||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999.04 | 117.2 | 63.9 | 85.5 (+1.7) |
| 1999.05 | 148.4 | 106.3 | 90.5 (+5.0) |
| 1999.06 | 169.8 | 137.7 | 93.1 (+2.6) |
| 1999.07 | 165.6 | 113.5 | 94.5 (+1.4) |
| 1999.08 | 170.7 | 93.7 | 97.4 (+2.9) |
| 1999.09 | 135.7 | 71.5 | 102.3 (+4.8) |
| 1999.10 | 164.8 | 116.7 | 107.7 (+5.4) |
| 1999.11 | 191.5 | 133.2 | (109.8 predicted, +2.1) |
| 1999.12 | 169.8 | 84.6 | (108.2 predicted, -1.6) |
| 2000.01 | 158.1 | 90.2 | (108.6 predicted, +0.4) |
| 2000.02 | 174.1 | 112.3 | (112.0 predicted, +3.4) |
| 2000.03 | 208.2 | 138.2 | (115.8 predicted, +3.8) |
| 2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.3 | |
| 2000.05 | 139.8 (1) | 21.9 (2) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz..
2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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