Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 15, 2000 at 03:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 318 and 369 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 182.6, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 2213 1221, Boulder K indices: 2213 2111). Region 8898 was quiet and stable, the region is rotating over the west limb. Regions 8901, 8902 and 8903 were quiet and stable. Region 8904 was mostly unchanged and is rotating off the visible disk. Region 8906 did not change significantly, however, it was considerable less active compared to recent days. The region still has a magnetic delta configuration and could produce a major flare. Region 8907 decayed into spotless plage. Regions 8908 and 8909 were quiet and stable. Region 8910 developed and has minor M class flaring potential. New region 8911 emerged in the northwest quadrant. New region 8912 emerged in the northern hemisphere over the central meridian. New region 8913 emerged near the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs 7 C flares were recorded on March 14. Region 8906 produced a C1.9 flare at 05:09 and a C2.2 flare at 20:47 UTC. Region 8910 generated a C1.7 flare at 09:05 and a C3.9 flare at 21:05 UTC. A filament eruption was observed in the southwest quadrant near regions 8901 and 8902 starting at 22:24 UTC. It is too early to tell if this event was accompanied by a possibly geoeffective CME. The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 15-17. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8898 20000302 4 S13W83 0160 DAO 8901 20000305 3 S13W49 0020 BXO 8902 20000306 1 S17W30 0000 AXX 8903 20000307 3 S12W71 0030 CSO 8904 20000308 4 N24W83 0160 CAO 8905 20000308 S06W57 plage 8906 20000308 38 S16W09 0900 EKC beta-delta 8907 20000308 S17W61 plage 8908 20000309 2 S23E08 0000 BXO 8909 20000311 4 S28E40 0050 CSO 8910 20000312 10 N10E43 0250 DAO 8911 20000314 2 N11W43 0020 CRO 8912 20000314 1 N15W02 0000 AXX 8913 20000314 1 S14E66 0000 AXX Total number of sunspots: 73 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.02 141.9 66.1 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 69.1 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.9 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.3 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.4 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.5 (+3.1) 1999.09 135.7 70.9 (102.6 predicted, +5.1) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 (107.7 predicted, +5.1) 1999.11 191.5 132.7 (110.2 predicted, +2.5) 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 158.1 90.2 2000.02 174.1 112.3 2000.03 208.2 (1) 87.0 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]