Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 14, 2000 at 05:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 354 and 393 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 188.1, the planetary A index was 4 (3-hour K indices: 2110 1222, Boulder K indices: 2211 1112). Region 8898 quiet and stable, the region will rotate over the west limb on March 15. Region 8901 developed slowly and may be capable of producing further C flares. Regions 8902 and 8903 were quiet and stable. Region 8904 was mostly unchanged and could produce further C flares before rotating off the visible disk on March 15. Region 8906 did not change significantly, it remained active and still has a fairly good chance of producing a major flare. Regions 8907, 8908 and 8909 were quiet and stable. Region 8910 will likely produce further C flares and has a fairly good chance of generating a minor M flare. Flares and CMEs 15 C flares and 1 M flare were recorded on March 13. Region 8901 produced a C1.8 flare at 17:30 UTC. Region 8910 generated a C1.4 flare at 02:34 and a C2.4 flare at 14:39 UTC. Region 8906 was the source of a C6.8 flare at 05:07, a C3.9 flare at 07:39, a C3.7 flare at 08:27, a C2.7 flare 09:42, a C3.5 flare at 16:23 and an M1.4/1N flare at 10:48 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 14-16. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 8898 20000302 6 S14W70 0250 EAO 8901 20000305 2 S12W37 0010 CAO 8902 20000306 4 S18W17 0010 BXO 8903 20000307 8 S12W58 0090 CAO 8904 20000308 10 N24W70 0150 EAO 8905 20000308 S06W44 plage 8906 20000308 32 S16E06 0840 EKC beta-gamma-delta 8907 20000308 1 S17W48 0000 AXX 8908 20000309 3 S20E21 0010 BXO 8909 20000311 3 S29E55 0050 CSO 8910 20000312 3 N09E56 0100 CSI Total number of sunspots: 72 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.02 141.9 66.1 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 69.1 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.9 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.3 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.4 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.5 (+3.1) 1999.09 135.7 70.9 (102.6 predicted, +5.1) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 (107.7 predicted, +5.1) 1999.11 191.5 132.7 (110.2 predicted, +2.5) 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 158.1 90.2 2000.02 174.1 112.3 2000.03 210.2 (1) 80.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]