Last update March 7, 2000 at 04:15 UTC.
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1954-1999]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 344 and 471 km/sec. A minor disturbance was in progress all day.
Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 222.4, the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour K indices: 2233 3333, Boulder K indices: 2332 3332). Region 8889 was quiet and stable and will rotate over the west limb on March 8. Region 8891 decayed slowly and was quiet. There is a small chance the region could produce a major flare. Region 8896 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8897 was quiet and stable and will rotate off the visible disk today. Region 8898 developed further but was less active than on the previous day. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 8899 was quiet and stable. Region 8900 developed further and has M class flaring potential. Region 8901 was quiet and stable. New region 8902 rotated partly into view at the southeast limb. This or another region trailing it has M class flaring potential and appears to be quite active in LASCO-EIT images.
6 C flares were recorded on March 6. Region 8889 produced a C3.9 flare at 16:19 UTC. Region 8898 was the source of a C4.3 flare at 12:00 UTC and probably most of the remaining 4 optically unassigned flares.
March 5: A filament eruption was observed over the central meridian near the solar equator starting at 07:48 UTC in LASCO-EIT. It is not clear whether there was a CME associated with this event, if there was it would likely impact Earth on March 8.
March 4: A filament eruption started at 16:24 in LASCO EIT images to the southeast of regions 8899 and 8900. There is a small chance the associated CME could be geoeffective, any impact would most likely occur on March 8.
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 7 with a slight possibility of an isolated active interval. Unsettled to active is possible on March 8-9 due to CME activity. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
 |
 |
|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
| Solar region | Date numbered | Actual no. sunspots | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8888 | 20000224 | N37W79 | plage | |||
| 8889 | 20000224 | 4 | N19W74 | 0110 | ESO | |
| 8890 | 20000224 | S11W79 | plage | |||
| 8891 | 20000225 | 20 | S16W58 | 0590 | EKI | beta-gamma |
| 8892 | 20000226 | N06W51 | plage | |||
| 8896 | 20000229 | 2 | N20W17 | 0010 | CSO | |
| 8897 | 20000301 | 1 | S37W82 | 0050 | HSX | |
| 8898 | 20000302 | 20 | S13E20 | 0330 | DKO | |
| 8899 | 20000303 | 8 | S11W08 | 0030 | CRO | |
| 8900 | 20000304 | 21 | S15W12 | 0360 | EKI | beta-gamma |
| 8901 | 20000305 | 5 | S14E57 | 0020 | BXO | |
| 8902 | 20000306 | 1 | S18E72 | 0030 | HSX | |
| Total number of sunspots: | 82 | |||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999.02 | 141.9 | 66.1 | 84.6 (+2.0) |
| 1999.03 | 126.3 | 69.1 | 83.8 (-0.8) |
| 1999.04 | 117.2 | 63.9 | 85.4 (+1.6) |
| 1999.05 | 148.4 | 106.3 | 90.4 (+5.0) |
| 1999.06 | 169.8 | 137.7 | 93.0 (+2.6) |
| 1999.07 | 165.6 | 113.5 | 94.4 (+1.4) |
| 1999.08 | 170.7 | 93.7 | 97.5 (+3.1) |
| 1999.09 | 135.7 | 70.9 | (102.6 predicted, +5.1) |
| 1999.10 | 164.8 | 116.4 | (107.7 predicted, +5.1) |
| 1999.11 | 191.5 | 132.7 | (110.2 predicted, +2.5) |
| 1999.12 | 169.8 | 86.4 | |
| 2000.01 | 158.1 | 90.2 | |
| 2000.02 | 174.1 | 112.3 | |
| 2000.03 | 215.5 (1) | 36.6 (2) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz..
2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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