Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 5, 2000 at 04:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 355 and 393 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 200.2, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 1000 2322, Boulder K indices: 1000 2311). Region 8882 is rotating over the west limb but could still produce an M flare. Region 8883 was quiet and stable and rotated off the visible disk early today. Region 8889 decayed further and was mostly quiet. Region 8891 developed several new spots late in the day and early on March 5, the region is still capable of major flaring. Region 8892 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8896 was quiet and stable, as was region 8897. Region 8898 is developing at a moderate pace and could become capable of producing a minor M flare. Region 8899 developed early in the day but appears to be decaying now. New region 8900 emerged near region 8899. The region is developing very quickly and may already be capable of M class flaring. Flares and CMEs 6 C flares were recorded on March 4. Region 8889 produced a C2.2 flare at 21:45 UTC. Region 8899 generated a C1.6 flare at 16:52 UTC. A filament eruption started at 16:24 in LASCO EIT images to the southeast of regions 8899 and 8900. There is a small chance the associated CME could be geoeffective, any impact would most likely occur on March 8. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the northern hemisphere may be too far to the north to cause a geomagnetic disturbance when it rotates over the central meridian on March 6. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 5-6. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8882 20000221 8 S15W83 0460 DKC 8883 20000222 2 N12W85 0030 HSX 8887 20000224 S11W69 plage 8888 20000224 N37W53 plage 8889 20000224 6 N20W47 0150 ESO 8890 20000224 S11W53 plage 8891 20000225 28 S15W29 0780 EKI beta-gamma 8892 20000226 N06W25 plage 8896 20000229 6 N19E12 0040 CSO 8897 20000301 5 S36W51 0070 DSO 8898 20000302 6 S15E48 0050 DSO 8899 20000303 7 S11E19 0030 BXO 8900 20000304 9 S15E16 0030 DSO Total number of sunspots: 77 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.02 141.9 66.1 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 69.1 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.9 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.3 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.4 (+1.4) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.5 (+3.1) 1999.09 135.7 70.9 (102.6 predicted, +5.1) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 (107.7 predicted, +5.1) 1999.11 191.5 132.7 (110.2 predicted, +2.5) 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 158.1 90.2 2000.02 174.1 112.3 2000.03 212.5 (1) 25.3 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]