:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2000 Feb 22 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
14 - 20 FEBRUARY 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8869 (S20,
L = 118, CLASS/AREA EAI/300 ON 20 FEBRUARY), WAS THE MOST ACTIVE
REGION, PRODUCING MULTIPLE C AND M-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST BEING
AN M2/1B ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP ON 17/1852UT. REGION
8872 (S29, L = 093, CLASS/AREA BXO/020 ON 17 FEBRUARY) PRODUCED A
LONG DURATION M1/1N ON 17/2035UT. THIS EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A TYPE II
RADIO SWEEP, A 200 SFU TENFLARE, AND A FULL-HALO CME. THIS WAS
THOUGHT TO BE A SYMPATHETIC FLARE DUE TO ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
REGION 8896.   THE REST OF THE REGIONS DURING THE PERIOD WERE MOSTLY
QUIET AND OF SIMPLE MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION.

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE NASA ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD; DATA
FROM THE SWEPAM INSTRUMENT WAS INTERRUPTED DURING A MANEUVER FROM
APPROXIMATELY 16/1900-18/1500UT.  THE PERIOD BEGAN WITH ENHANCED
SPEEDS DUE TO A 11/2353UT SHOCK, A SECOND TRANSIENT WAS OBSERVED AT
14/0700UT, FURTHER INCREASING OBSERVED SPEEDS TO OVER 700 KM/S. 
FOLLOWING THIS, AVAILABLE DATA SHOWED NOMINAL VALUES THROUGH 19
FEBRUARY.  AT 20/2046UT A SHOCK ASSOCIATED WITH A PREVIOUSLY
OBSERVED FULL HALO CME PASSED ACE, RAISING SPEEDS BRIEFLY AS HIGH AS
500KM/S.

THERE WAS A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
ON 18 FEBRUARY.  THE EVENT BEGAN 18/1130UT, REACHED A MAXIMUM FLUX
OF 13 PFU'S AT 1215UT AND ENDED AT 18/1405UT. PROTON FLUXES WERE AT
BACKGROUND LEVELS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
MODERATE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO
NORMAL LEVELS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SOLAR TRANSIENT.  BY THE 15TH THE FIELD
DROPPED BACK TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID LATITUDES AND QUIET TO
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. IT REMAINED AT NOMINAL LEVELS THROUGH MOST
OF THE 20TH, BUT ACTIVITY PICKED UP AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER TRANSIENT LATE IN THE DAY.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
23 FEBRUARY - 20 MARCH 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH C-CLASS FLARES BEING THE MOST LIKELY. 
THE PROBABILITY FOR M-CLASS FLARES WILL DIMINISH AS ACTIVE REGION
8869 (S18, L = 116) ROTATES OFF THE DISK ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

NO PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS ON
MARCH 03-06, DUE TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, BARRING AN
EARTH-DIRECTED CME.


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