:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2000 Feb 08 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
31 JANUARY - 06 FEBRUARY 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM VERY LOW TO HIGH LEVELS. OCCASIONAL B- AND
C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED DURING 31 JANUARY - 03 FEBRUARY. ACTIVITY
INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS ON 04 FEBRUARY AS REGION 8858 (N26, L -
200, CLASS/AREA EAI/170 ON 05 FEBRUARY) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M3/SF
AT 04/0919UT DURING A PERIOD OF GROWTH. ACTIVITY INCREASED TO HIGH
LEVELS ON 05 FEBRUARY BY VIRTUE OF AN IMPULSIVE X1/3B FLARE AT
05/1928UT, ALSO FROM REGION 8858. A 350 SFU TENFLARE AND TYPE II
RADIO SWEEP WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE. ACTIVITY DROPPED TO LOW
LEVELS ON 06 FEBRUARY AS REGION 8858 STABILIZED AS A MODERATE-SIZED,
MIXED-POLARITY SPOT GROUP.

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE NASA ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
RECURRENT, NEGATIVE-POLARITY CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS BEGAN LATE ON 05
FEBRUARY AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE
TRANSITION TO THE CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM WAS ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASED VELOCITIES, WHICH REACHED A PEAK OF 720 KM/SEC ON 06
JANUARY; LOW DENSITIES, INCREASED IMF BZ VARIABILITY WITH SOUTHERLY
DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 16 NT (GSM), AND A SHIFT TO A TOWARD (NEGATIVE
POLARITY) SOLAR SECTOR.

THERE WERE NO PROTON EVENTS DETECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING 31 JANUARY - 05 FEBRUARY, THEN
DROPPED TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS ON 06 FEBRUARY.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH MOST
OF 05 FEBRUARY. A CORONAL HOLE-INDUCED DISTURBANCE BEGAN LATE ON 05
FEBRUARY AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO
MAJOR STORM LEVELS WERE DETECTED DURING THE DISTURBANCE WITH STORM
LEVELS MOSTLY LIMITED TO HIGH LATITUDES.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
09 FEBRUARY - 06 MARCH 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS
DURING THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.  ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16
FEBRUARY AND AGAIN DURING 01 - 06 MARCH. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8858 BEFORE IT DEPARTS
THE VISIBLE DISK ON 16 FEBRUARY.

NO PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH 11 FEBRUARY. A
DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE FLUXES IS EXPECTED DURING 12 - 24
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HIGH FLUXES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH 23 FEBRUARY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING 24 - 25 FEBRUARY AND 03 - 06 MARCH DUE TO
RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME.


.