:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2000 Jan 11 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
03 - 09 JANUARY 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ISOLATED C-CLASS
SUBFLARES OCCURRED EACH DAY. THE DISK WAS POPULATED BY A NUMBER OF
SMALL, SIMPLY-STRUCTURED REGIONS. ONE EVENT OF NOTE WAS A
LONG-DURATION C6 X-RAY BURST AT 08/1645UT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE NASA ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A
CORONAL HOLE SIGNATURE WAS EVIDENT DURING 03 - 06 JANUARY WITH WIND
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 680 KM/SEC, LOW PARTICLE DENSITIES (01 TO 05
P/CC), AND FREQUENT NORTH/SOUTH FLUCTUATIONS OF IMF BZ IN THE PLUS
06 TO MINUS 08 NT (GSM) RANGE. PHI DATA INDICATED THE CORONAL HOLE
WAS OF POSITIVE POLARITY. SOLAR WIND FLOW CHARACTERISTICS WERE
UNREMARKABLE DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN NEAR MIDDAY ON 09 JANUARY. THE
ENHANCEMENT MAY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE
OBSERVED ON 08 JANUARY.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MILDLY DISTURBED DURING 03 - 06 JANUARY
WITH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO
MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE WAS DUE TO
RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY  DECLINED
TO MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
12 JANUARY - 07 FEBRUARY 2000

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS
DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT C-CLASS FLARES AND
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  IN
ADDITION, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE
ACTIVITY THROUGH 26 JANUARY WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGION
8806 (N19, L = 115).

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT THROUGH 26 JANUARY.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH 27 JANUARY.
FLUXES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING 28
- 31 JANUARY, THEN RETURN TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS THROUGH 26 JANUARY, BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME. ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING JANUARY 27 - FEBRUARY 02 DUE
TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.


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