Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update January 16, 2000 at 04:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 383 and 455 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 210.7, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour Kp indices: 2111 2222, Boulder K indices: 1011 1221). Region 8821 was quiet and stable. Region 8823 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8824 was mostly quiet and stable. The region developed several new spots but became less magnetically complex. M flares are possible. Region 8825 once again decayed into spotless plage. Region 8826 was quiet and stable. Region 8827 did not change significantly and could produce further C flares. Region 8828 developed slowly and has C class flaring potential. Region 8829 was mostly unchanged and quiet. M class flares are possible. Region 8830 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8831 developed slowly and is likely to produce C flares, a minor M flare is possible. Region 8832 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 8833 was quiet and stable. New region 8834 emerged in the southwest quadrant and could produce C flares. New region 8835 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs 4 C flares were recorded on January 15. Region 8824 produced a C2.8 flare at 20:16 UTC. Region 8827 was the source of 2 C flares, first a C4.0 flare at 02:00 UTC then a C1.9 flare at 10:32 UTC. Region 8829 generated a C1.7 flare at 19:15 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on January 16-18. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8820 20000106 S15W46 plage 8821 20000106 5 N28W35 0110 CAO 8823 20000108 S32W27 plage 8824 20000109 70 S14W03 0380 EAC beta-gamma 8825 20000110 N10W07 plage 8826 20000111 4 N18W71 0040 CSO 8827 20000111 8 S12W70 0150 CAO 8828 20000111 16 S22E06 0120 DAO 8829 20000111 18 N15E24 0120 ESO 8830 20000112 S10W29 plage 8831 20000112 18 S18E40 0100 DAO 8832 20000113 9 S16W28 0050 CSO 8833 20000113 1 N18E54 0140 HAX 8834 20000115 5 S16W60 0030 CRO 8835 20000115 4 N08E57 0000 BXO Total number of sunspots: 158 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1998.12 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 1999.01 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 1999.02 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.4 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 (94.8 predicted, +1.8) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 (99.4 predicted, +4.6) 1999.09 135.7 70.6 (105.7 predicted, +6.3) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 1999.11 191.5 132.7 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 161.8 (1) 67.4 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux measurement at 2800 MHz by DRAO. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]