Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update January 15, 2000 at 06:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 421 and 517 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 201.3, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour Kp indices: 2201 2332, Boulder K indices: 3312 2112). Region 8820 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8821 was quiet and stable. Region 8823 was quiet and could become spotless today. Region 8824 was mostly quiet and stable. The region still has a magnetic delta and could produce an M class flare. Region 8825 reemerged with a few spots. Region 8826 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8827 is unstable and could produce a minor M class flare. Region 8828 was mostly quiet and stable. Region 8829 developed a few new spots and continued to be quiet. M class flares are possible. Region 8830 decayed and was quiet, the region is spotless early on Jan.15. Region 8831 developed slowly and is likely to produce at least C flares. Region 8832 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 8833 was quiet and stable. Flares and CMEs 5 C flares were recorded on January 14. Region 8827 produced the only optically assigned flare of the day, a C6.3 event at 17:11 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 15-17. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 8820 20000106 S15W33 plage 8821 20000106 4 N28W24 0110 CSO 8823 20000108 1 S32W14 0000 AXX 8824 20000109 48 S13E08 0410 DKI beta-gamma-delta 8825 20000110 3 N10E06 0000 BXO 8826 20000111 2 N18W59 0040 HSX 8827 20000111 11 S12W58 0160 CAO 8828 20000111 10 S21E18 0020 BXO 8829 20000111 14 N17E40 0140 CSO 8830 20000112 1 S10W16 0000 AXX 8831 20000112 6 S17E53 0080 CSO 8832 20000113 7 S17W16 0020 CSO 8833 20000113 1 N18E66 0130 HSX Total number of sunspots: 108 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1998.12 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 1999.01 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 1999.02 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.4 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 (94.8 predicted, +1.8) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 (99.4 predicted, +4.6) 1999.09 135.7 70.6 (105.7 predicted, +6.3) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 1999.11 191.5 132.7 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 158.3 (1) 58.7 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux measurement at 2800 MHz by DRAO. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]