Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update January 14, 2000 at 03:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 480 and 594 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 202.0, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour Kp indices: 2233 2322, Boulder K indices: 2343 3221). Region 8820 was quiet and stable. Region 8821 decayed quickly and lost most of its spots. Region 8823 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region could become spotless within a couple of days. Region 8824 developed further and has M class flare potential. Region 8825 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8826 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8827 developed slowly and has at least C class flare potential. Region 8828 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 8829 did not change significantly and was mostly quiet. M class flares are possible. Region 8830 was quiet and stable. Region 8831 rotated fully into view and could produce C flares. New region 8832 emerged in the southern hemisphere very near the central meridian. New region 8833 rotated partly into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs 7 C flares were recorded on January 13. Region 8824 produced a C3.5 flare at 15:13 UTC. Region 8827 was the source of a C2.6 flare at 18:30 while another C2.6 flare was observed at 20:49 UTC and was generated by region 8829. The most energetic flare of the day was optically unaccounted and measured C5.5 at 02:52 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 14-16. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 8820 20000106 2 S15W20 0010 BXO 8821 20000106 1 N28W10 0120 HSX 8822 20000107 N16W80 plage 8823 20000108 1 S32W01 0000 AXX 8824 20000109 41 S12E20 0430 FKI beta-gamma-delta 8825 20000110 N11E19 plage 8826 20000111 6 N18W48 0060 CAO 8827 20000111 15 S12W46 0110 CSO 8828 20000111 8 S21E31 0030 CSO 8829 20000111 9 N15E52 0170 ESO 8830 20000112 3 S10W02 0020 CSO 8831 20000112 5 S17E66 0070 CSO 8832 20000113 6 S16W03 0020 BXO 8833 20000113 1 N19E78 0080 HSX Total number of sunspots: 98 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1998.12 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 1999.01 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 1999.02 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.4 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 (94.8 predicted, +1.8) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 (99.4 predicted, +4.6) 1999.09 135.7 70.6 (105.7 predicted, +6.3) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 1999.11 191.5 132.7 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 155.0 (1) 51.4 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux measurement at 2800 MHz by DRAO. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]