Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update January 13, 2000 at 05:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 505 and 693 km/sec under the influence of a high speed coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 195.7, the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour Kp indices: 3322 1232, Boulder K indices: 2322 3221). Region 8820 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8821 was quiet and stable. Region 8823 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8824 developed a magnetic delta configuration and is likely to produce occasional M flares, a major flare is possible. Region 8825 was quiet and stable, the region is spotless early on Jan.13. Region 8826 developed further and remained quiet. Region 8827 developed quickly and should be capable of C class flaring. Region 8828 was mostly quiet and stable. Region 8829 rotated fully into view. The region could produce further M class flares. New region 8830 emerged in the southeast quadrant. New region 8831 rotated partly into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs 9 C flares and 3 M flares were recorded on January 12. Region 8824 produced 4 C flares and an M flare, the latter was an M1.2/1F event at 00:17 UTC. Region 8828 generated a C2.8 flare at 11:41 UTC. Region 8829 was the source of 2 M flares. The first was an M2.8 flare at 01:38 UTC, it was accompanied by a moderately strong type II sweep. The last event was an M1.1 flare at 20:49 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 13-15. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 8820 20000106 3 S14W08 0010 BXO 8821 20000106 8 N28E05 0180 CSO 8822 20000107 N16W67 plage 8823 20000108 8 S32E14 0030 CAO 8824 20000109 31 S13E32 0350 EKC beta-gamma-delta 8825 20000110 2 N11E32 0000 BXO 8826 20000111 8 N18W35 0080 DAO 8827 20000111 18 S12W33 0070 DAO 8828 20000111 5 S20E44 0010 BXO 8829 20000111 7 N16E66 0170 DAO 8830 20000112 3 S09E11 0010 CRO 8831 20000112 1 S15E78 0020 HSX Total number of sunspots: 94 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1998.12 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 1999.01 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 1999.02 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.4 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 (94.8 predicted, +1.8) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 (99.4 predicted, +4.6) 1999.09 135.7 70.6 (105.7 predicted, +6.3) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 1999.11 191.5 132.7 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 151.0 (1) 44.4 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux measurement at 2800 MHz by DRAO. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]