Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update January 11, 2000 at 05:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 10. Solar wind speed ranged between 324 and 438 km/sec. A coronal stream arrived during the latter half of the day. The interplanetary magnetic field was moderately to strongly northwards most of the time following the arrival of the stream. Should a significant southward swing occur unsettled to active intervals will be likely. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 163.2, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour Kp indices: 1111 1223, Boulder K indices: 1111 1223). Region 8814 decayed into spotless plage, as did region 8819. Region 8820 was quiet and stable. Region 8821 developed slowly and should be capable of C class flaring. Region 8822 decayed and was quiet. Region 8823 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 8824 is likely to continue to produce C flares and minor M flares. There is a possibility of a major (proton) flare as well. New region 8825 emerged near the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs 8 C flares and 1 M flare were recorded on January 10 with region 8824 producing all optically assigned flares. The region generated a long duration C9.7 flare at 0912 UTC and a long duration M3.3/2N event at 13:50 UTC. As LASCO movies have not been updated since Jan.6 it is difficult to tell whether or not there were any significant coronal mass ejections associated with the flares. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 11 due to a coronal stream. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8814 19991229 N11W85 plage 8815 19991231 N12W72 plage 8817 20000104 N24W71 plage 8819 20000106 N10W78 plage 8820 20000106 3 S15E19 0030 HSX 8821 20000106 6 N27E30 0150 DAO 8822 20000107 1 N16W41 0000 AXX 8823 20000108 6 S33E39 0050 CSO 8824 20000109 9 S13E62 0230 EAO 8825 20000110 3 N11E58 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 28 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1998.12 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 1999.01 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 1999.02 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.4 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 (94.8 predicted, +1.8) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 (99.4 predicted, +4.6) 1999.09 135.7 70.6 (105.7 predicted, +6.3) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 1999.11 191.5 132.7 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 143.9 (1) 33.0 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux measurement at 2800 MHz by DRAO. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]