Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update January 10, 2000 at 03:40 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 336 and 408 km/sec. Solar wind parameters indicate that a disturbance is approaching Earth, likely a coronal hole based disturbance. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 160.6, the planetary A index was 3 (3-hour Kp indices: 1000 1112, Boulder K indices: 1101 1100). Region 8813 was quiet and will rotate off the visible disk early today. Region 8814 was quiet and stable, it is spotless early on Jan.10. Region 8816 was quiet and stable, the region will rotate over the west limb today. Region 8819 decayed and was mostly quiet, the region is spotless early on Jan.10. Region 8820 developed slowly and was mostly quiet, as was region 8821. Region 8822 was quiet and stable, the region is decaying early on Jan.10 and could become spotless by tomorrow. Region 8823 was quiet and stable. New region 8824 rotated partly into view at the southeast limb. This region has M class flaring potential. A new region is developing fairly quickly at the northeast limb. The above 10 MeV proton flux increased slowly after 15:30 UTC and seems to have peaked near 2 pfu. The source of the increase is likely a proton flare in region 8824 some days ago. Flares and CMEs 3 C flares were recorded on January 9. Region 8819 produced a C3.2 long duration event at 08:27 UTC while region 8821 managed a C2.4 flare at 20:41 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on January 6-7. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 10 due to a coronal stream, isolated minor storm intervals are possible. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8813 19991229 1 S15W87 0050 HSX 8814 19991229 1 N11W72 0000 AXX 8815 19991231 N12W59 plage 8816 20000104 3 N20W83 0060 DAO 8817 20000104 N24W58 plage 8818 20000105 S11W85 plage 8819 20000106 6 N10W65 0030 CRO 8820 20000106 3 S16E33 0050 CSO 8821 20000106 4 N26E40 0120 CAO 8822 20000107 2 N16W24 0030 CRO 8823 20000108 2 S32E51 0030 HRX 8824 20000109 7 S13E75 0120 EAO Total number of sunspots: 29 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1998.12 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 1999.01 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 1999.02 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.4 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 (94.8 predicted, +1.8) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 (99.4 predicted, +4.6) 1999.09 135.7 70.6 (105.7 predicted, +6.3) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 1999.11 191.5 132.7 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 141.9 (1) 30.2 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux measurement at 2800 MHz by DRAO. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]