Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update January 9, 2000 at 04:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 391 and 495 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 154.7, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour Kp indices: 1123 2221, Boulder K indices: 1122 2210). Region 8813 was quiet and will rotate off the visible disk early on Jan.10. Region 8814 was quiet and stable. Region 8815 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8816 was quiet and stable, the region will rotate over the west limb on Jan.10. Region 8817 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8819 decayed and was mostly quiet. Region 8820 was mostly quiet and stable, as was region 8821. Region 8822 was quiet and stable. New region 8823 emerged near the southeast limb. A bright region at the southeast limb will be rotating partly into view today and tomorrow. The region could be capable of M class flaring. Flares and CMEs 4 C flares were recorded on January 8. Region 8819 generated a C2.0 flare at 04:18 UTC. The bright region at the southeast limb was the source of a C6.0 long duration flare peaking at 16:49 UTC, an erupting limb prominence was observed to the south of this region. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on January 6-7. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 9-10 due to a coronal stream, isolated minor storm intervals are possible. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8813 19991229 1 S15W75 0120 HAX 8814 19991229 6 N11W60 0040 CSO 8815 19991231 N12W46 plage 8816 20000104 3 N20W70 0110 DAO 8817 20000104 N24W45 plage 8818 20000105 S11W72 plage 8819 20000106 10 N10W52 0010 BXO 8820 20000106 1 S15E46 0060 HSX 8821 20000106 1 N26E51 0100 HSX 8822 20000107 3 N16W10 0020 CSO 8823 20000108 1 S31E63 0000 AXX Total number of sunspots: 26 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1998.12 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 1999.01 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 1999.02 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.4 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 (94.8 predicted, +1.8) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 (99.4 predicted, +4.6) 1999.09 135.7 70.6 (105.7 predicted, +6.3) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 1999.11 191.5 132.7 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 139.6 (1) 26.3 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux measurement at 2800 MHz by DRAO. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]