Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update January 8, 2000 at 05:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 473 and 575 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 149.8, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour Kp indices: 3213 2222, Boulder K indices: 3313 3231). Region 8810 rotated off the visible disk. Region 8813 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8814 was quiet and stable. Region 8815 decayed slowly and is spotless early on Dec.8. Region 8816 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 8817 was quiet and stable, the region appears to be spotless early on Dec.8. Region 8818 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8819 developed quickly early in the day but seems to have become more stable. Further C class flares are possible. Region 8820 was quiet and stable, as was region 8821. New region 8822 emerged in the northeast quadrant near the central meridian. A bright region at the southeast limb will be rotating partly into view today. The region could be capable of M class flaring. Flares and CMEs 8 C flares were recorded on January 7. Region 8819 was the source of all optically accounted activity producing 5 C flares, the largest being a C5.6 flare at 17:40 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on January 6-7. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 8. A coronal stream will likely cause unsettled to active conditions on January 9-10, possibly with isolated minor storm intervals. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8810 19991224 2 N38W83 0040 HAX 8813 19991229 7 S16W62 0100 CSO 8814 19991229 3 N11W47 0060 HSX 8815 19991231 3 N12W33 0000 BXO 8816 20000104 6 N20W57 0100 DAO 8817 20000104 3 N24W32 0000 BXO 8818 20000105 S11W59 plage 8819 20000106 11 N09W40 0050 CAO 8820 20000106 6 S15E59 0060 CAO 8821 20000106 1 N26E62 0080 HSX 8822 20000107 4 N16E03 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 46 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1998.12 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 1999.01 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 1999.02 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.4 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 (94.8 predicted, +1.8) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 (99.4 predicted, +4.6) 1999.09 135.7 70.6 (105.7 predicted, +6.3) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 1999.11 191.5 132.7 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 137.4 (1) 22.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux measurement at 2800 MHz by DRAO. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]