Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update January 7, 2000 at 05:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on January 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 497 and 599 km/sec. An increase in wind speed occurred after 11h UTC and an increase in geomagnetic activity was observed early during the second half of the day. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 144.8, the planetary A index was 17 (3-hour Kp indices: 2313 5433, Boulder K indices: 2323 5432). Region 8810 was quiet and stable, the region is rotating over the west limb. Region 8813 was quiet and stable, as was region 8814. Region 8815 developed slowly and seems to be merging with region 8819. Region 8816 developed slowly and could produce further C flares. Regions 8817 and 8818 were quiet and stable. New region 8819 emerged in the northwest quadrant near region 8815. New region 8820 rotated into view at the southeast limb. New region 8821 rotated partly into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs 2 C flares were recorded on January 6. Region 8816 produced a C5.8/1N flare at 06:53 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on January 6-7. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 7-8. Quiet to active is likely on January 9-10 because of a coronal stream. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8810 19991224 3 N38W78 0120 FSO 8813 19991229 7 S16W47 0130 DSO 8814 19991229 4 N12W33 0080 CSO 8815 19991231 10 N10W17 0020 BXO 8816 20000104 7 N20W43 0050 DSO 8817 20000104 7 N24W17 0020 BXO 8818 20000105 2 S11W46 0010 BXO 8819 20000106 3 N10W25 0000 BXO 8820 20000106 1 S16E71 0050 HAX 8821 20000106 1 N25E80 0050 HSX Total number of sunspots: 45 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1998.12 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 1999.01 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 1999.02 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 1999.03 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 1999.04 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 1999.05 148.4 106.4 90.4 (+5.0) 1999.06 169.8 137.7 93.0 (+2.6) 1999.07 165.6 113.5 (94.8 predicted, +1.8) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 (99.4 predicted, +4.6) 1999.09 135.7 70.6 (105.7 predicted, +6.3) 1999.10 164.8 116.4 1999.11 191.5 132.7 1999.12 169.8 86.4 2000.01 135.3 (1) 18.1 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux measurement at 2800 MHz by DRAO. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]