:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 1999 Dec 01 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
22 - 28 NOVEMBER 1999

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE PERIOD AND
THEN INCREASED TO MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER.  REGION
8771 (S14, L=173, CLASS/AREA EKI/720 ON 28 NOVEMBER) PRODUCED
MULTIPLE M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD 25-28 NOVEMBER (SEE THE
ENERGETIC EVENT LIST FOR EVENT TIMES/LOCATIONS) INCLUDING AN X1/2B
WITH A 260 SFU TENFLARE ON 27/1212UT. THIS REGION WAS STARTING TO
SHOW SOME DECAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WAS DUE TO ROTATE OFF
OF THE DISK BY 29 NOVEMBER. REGION 8778 (S15, L=113, CLASS/AREA
CAO/80 ON 24 NOVEMBER) PRODUCED AN ISOLATED M2/1B FLARE ON
24/2156UT. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE
DURING THE PERIOD.

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA (SWEPAM) WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
VELOCITIES RANGED FROM 330 TO 500 KM/SEC. THERE WERE PERIODS OF
SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD IMF BZ DETECTED DURING 23- 24 NOVEMBER.

NO PROTON EVENTS WERE DETECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DURING THE
PERIOD.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON VARIED FROM NORMAL TO MODERATE
LEVELS.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING
THE SECOND HALF. ISOLATED MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING PERIODS OCCURRED
DURING 24-25 NOVEMBER.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
01 - 27 DECEMBER 1999

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO HIGH LEVELS. FREQUENT
C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO CHANCES FOR ISOLATED MAJOR
FLARES AS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE REGIONS 8765, 8766, AND 8771 ARE DUE TO
RETURN ON 7-13 DECEMBER.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SOLAR PROTON EVENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
WHEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS RETURN STARTING ON 07 DECEMBER.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING 05 - 10 DECEMBER
WITH NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS DURING 04 - 08 DECEMBER DUE TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE
EFFECTS. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO VARY BETWEEN QUIET AND
UNSETTLED LEVELS (BARRING ANY EARTH-DIRECTED CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS).


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