:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 1999 Nov 09 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
01 - 07 NOVEMBER 1999

SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. LOW LEVELS
PREVAILED DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES,
MOSTLY FROM REGION 8749 (S18, L = 076, CLASS/AREA EAO/290 ON 05
NOVEMBER). THIS REGION GRADUALLY GREW THROUGH 04 NOVEMBER AND
DISPLAYED A MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE WHICH INCLUDED A
WEAK MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. ACTIVITY ROSE TO MODERATE LEVELS
ON 05 NOVEMBER DUE TO TWO M-CLASS EVENTS. THE FIRST OF THESE, AN
M1/1F AT 05/1718UT, OCCURRED AS REGION 8749 ENTERED A PERIOD OF
GRADUAL DECAY (WHICH CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD). THE
SECOND WAS A LONG-DURATION M3 X-RAY FLARE AT 05/1829UT FROM BEYOND
THE NORTHEAST LIMB. THE SOURCE FOR THE M3 FLARE ROTATED ONTO THE
VISIBLE DISK ON 06 NOVEMBER AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8759 (N08, L
= 289, CLASS/AREA EKC/440 ON 07 NOVEMBER). THIS REGION APPEARED TO
BE THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8731, WHICH PRODUCED AN ISOLATED X-CLASS
FLARE DURING ITS LAST ROTATION.

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED IN THE SOLAR WIND FLOW THROUGH 06
NOVEMBER. CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS BEGAN EARLY ON 07 NOVEMBER AS
VELOCITIES ROSE TO 600 KM/SEC, DENSITIES DECLINED, AND THE SOLAR
SECTOR SHIFTED TO AN AWAY (POSITIVE POLARITY) ORIENTATION. IN
ADDITION, IMF BZ BECAME MORE VARIABLE AS WE TRANSITIONED TO THE
HIGH-SPEED STREAM WITH SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS TO MINUS 17 NT (GSM).

NO PROTON EVENTS WERE DETECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DURING THE
PERIOD.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MOSTLY MODERATE LEVELS
THROUGH 05 NOVEMBER, THEN DROPPED TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS THROUGH 06
NOVEMBER. A GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE BEGAN EARLY ON 07 NOVEMBER WITH
THE ONSET OF CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
WERE DETECTED DURING THE DISTURBANCE WITH BRIEF MAJOR STORM PERIODS
AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUED AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
10 NOVEMBER - 06 DECEMBER 1999

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. FREQUENT
C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8759 UNTIL IT DEPARTS THE VISIBLE DISK ON 20
NOVEMBER.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SOLAR PROTON EVENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT THROUGH 20 NOVEMBER.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH 15 NOVEMBER, THEN
AGAIN DURING 21-23 NOVEMBER.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS THROUGH 13 NOVEMBER AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS CONTINUE. ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING 19 - 21 NOVEMBER AND
05 - 06 DECEMBER DUE TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.


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