Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update November 27, 1999 at 06:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 26. Solar wind speed ranged between 369 and 479 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 172.2, the planetary A index was 4 (3-hour Kp indices: 1022 2111, Boulder K indices: 1122 2220). Region 8771 lost some of its area and a few spots, however, a magnetic delta configuration developed in one of the two large umbras. The region was very unstable and could produce further major flares before rotating off the visible disk in a couple of days. Region 8772 was quiet and stable, as was region 8773. Region 8774 reemerged with a single spot. Region 8776 was quiet and stable. Region 8778 developed further and could soon become capable of producing a major flare. Region 8779 was quiet and stable. Region 8780 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8781 is developing quickly and will likely become capable of M class flaring today. Flares and CMEs 8 C flares and 3 M flares were recorded on November 26. Region 8771 produced 5 C flares and 3 M flares, 2 of which were major flares. An M5.7/3B flare was observed at 01:23 UTC, an M1.9/2B flare peaked at 04:00 UTC and an M6.0/2N flare followed at 13:43 UTC. Several energetic flares have been observed early on November 27, including an M2.8 flare at 03:01 UTC. Region 8778 was the source of 3 C flares, one of which was interesting. A C3.9 flare at 07:05 UTC was accompanied by a moderately strong type II sweep. A coronal mass ejection and a Moreton wave was observed accompanying the flare. As this event occurred while the region was near the central meridian, there is a high probability of a CME impact at Earth sometime between late on November 28 and noon on November 29. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes A well defined coronal hole in the northern hemisphere will reach the central meridian on November 27, however, it may be located too far to the north to be geoeffective. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 27-28. On November 29 a CME could impact Earth and cause active to major storm conditions. On November 30 a coronal stream could reach Earth and cause unsettled to active conditions. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 8769 991115 S12W68 plage 8771 991117 17 S14W63 0720 FKI beta-gamma-delta 8772 991118 1 N06W31 0000 AXX 8773 991119 5 S13W47 0030 DRO 8774 991119 1 N20W21 0000 AXX 8776 991120 3 S27W58 0050 CSO 8777 991121 S27W25 plage 8778 991121 29 S14W05 0140 EAO beta-gamma 8779 991124 3 S09W58 0010 BXO 8780 991124 S11E25 plage 8781 991124 4 S13E47 0080 CSO Total number of sunspots: 63 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 9901 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 9902 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 9903 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 9904 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 9905 148.4 106.4 (90.4 predicted, +5.0) 9906 169.8 137.7 (94.6 predicted, +4.2) 9907 165.6 113.5 (99.6 predicted, +5.0) 9908 170.7 93.7 9909 135.7 70.6 9910 164.8 116.4 9911 195.2 (1) 179.7 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]