Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update November 23, 1999 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 343 and 497 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 192.0, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour Kp indices: 3223 4211, Boulder K indices: 3113 4311). Region 8765 decayed slowly and is still large and complex. The region could produce a major flare before rotating off the visible disk on November 24. Region 8766 decayed further and was quiet. Region 8768 was mostly quiet and stable, the region will rotate over the west limb today. Region 8771 was mostly unchanged. Although the region has major flare potential it was fairly quiet the last day. Region 8772 was quiet and stable, as was region 8773. Region 8776 developed slowly and could produce further C flares. Region 8777 was quiet and stable and appears to be spotless early on November 23. Region 8778 was quiet most of the day but became more unstable and began developing late in the day. Flares and CMEs 6 C flares were recorded on November 22. Region 8765 generated a C3.2 flare at 02:17 UTC and a C8.9 flare at 12:17 UTC. Region 8771 only managed to produce a C1 flare while region 8776 was the source of a C3.9 flare at 17:23 UTC. Region 8778 produced a C3.5 flare at 19:50 UTC. November 20: Region 8771 generated an M3.2/2N flare at 22:35 UTC. It was accompanied by a moderately strong type II sweep and a weak type IV sweep. The associated coronal mass ejection could impact Earth on November 23 and cause active to major storm conditions. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes An isolated coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 19-20. An isolated coronal hole in the northern hemisphere will be in a geoeffective position on November 23. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled initially on November 23. Sometime today or early on November 24 a CME could impact Earth and cause active to major storm conditions. Weak coronal streams could influence the geomagnetic field today and> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Transfer interrupted! 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 8763 991110 S13W87 plage 8765 991111 14 S13W72 0720 EKC beta-gamma-delta 8766 991113 12 N17W49 0090 DAO 8768 991114 7 N16W78 0100 ESO 8769 991115 S12W16 plage 8771 991117 24 S16W11 0280 EKC beta-gamma-delta 8772 991118 10 N05E16 0040 CSO 8773 991119 7 S15W02 0020 CRO 8774 991119 N20E30 plage 8775 991119 S16W57 plage 8776 991120 12 S29W01 0080 DAO 8777 991121 1 S26E27 0000 AXX 8778 991121 2 S12E48 0010 AXX Total number of sunspots: 89 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 9901 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 9902 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 9903 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 9904 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 9905 148.4 106.4 (90.4 predicted, +5.0) 9906 169.8 137.7 (94.6 predicted, +4.2) 9907 165.6 113.5 (99.6 predicted, +5.0) 9908 170.7 93.7 9909 135.7 70.6 9910 164.8 116.4 9911 197.6 (1) 159.6 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]