Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update November 16, 1999 at 04:16 UTC. Minor update posted at 04:53 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 331 and 452 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 205.6, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour Kp indices: 2122 2210, Boulder K indices: 2122 2221). Region 8755 was quiet and stable. Region 8759 was mostly unchanged and quiet, the region still has M class flaring potential. Region 8760 decayed slowly and remains capable of minor M class flaring, the region will rotate off the visible disk on November 17. Region 8763 did not change significantly and could produce C and minor M flares. Region 8765 is still developing and has major flare potential. Region 8766 has a magnetic delta configuration and is developing slowly. Major flares from this region are possible. Region 8767 was quiet and stable, as was region 8768. New region 8769 rotated partly into view at the southeast limb, this region appears to have M class flaring potential. Comment added at 04:53 UTC on November 16: The third M flare of the day is in progress. In contrast to the previous impulsive events this one is either a long duration or very long duration event. It has reached the class M1.2 level as I write this. The M3.8 flare from region 8766 earlier today was associated with a strong type II sweep and a slow coronal mass ejection. There is a chance it could impact the earth on November 19. Flares and CMEs 8 C flares and 1 M flare were recorded on November 15. Region 8763 was the source of an impulsive C8.9/1N flare at 17:14 UTC. Region 8765 produced a long duration M2.9/2N event peaking at 08:41 UTC, A C4.4 flare at 16:19 UTC and a C5.5/1F flare at 18:56 UTC. Region 8766 generated a C8.9 flare at 00:09 UTC and a C3.9 flare at 04:47 UTC. The region was the source of an impulsive M3.8 flare at 02:46 UTC on November 16. Another impulsive M3 flare peaked at 04:12 UTC today. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1-C2 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 14-15. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 16. A coronal stream could influence the field on November 17-18 causing unsettled to minor storm conditions. A coronal mass ejection observed on November 14 could reach earth on November 17. If there is an impact, active to major storm would be likely. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally poor and improving. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8754 991104 S07W79 plage 8755 991105 1 N23W61 0080 HSX 8758 991106 N18W52 plage 8759 991106 44 N11W32 0270 FAI beta-gamma 8760 991107 11 N15W70 0420 FKO 8761 991108 N20W41 plage 8763 991110 7 S14E04 0070 CSO 8764 991110 N18W82 plage 8765 991111 34 S13E19 0820 EKC beta-gamma 8766 991113 13 N17E44 0270 DKI beta-delta 8767 991114 5 N42W42 0040 CSO 8768 991114 7 N17E20 0030 DSO 8769 991115 1 S10E76 0030 HSX Total number of sunspots: 123 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 9901 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 9902 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 9903 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 9904 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 9905 148.4 106.4 (90.4 predicted, +5.0) 9906 169.8 137.7 (94.6 predicted, +4.2) 9907 165.6 113.5 (99.6 predicted, +5.0) 9908 170.7 93.7 9909 135.7 70.6 9910 164.8 116.4 9911 190.6 (1) 109.2 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]