Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update November 15, 1999 at 01:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 400 and 489 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 218.8, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour Kp indices: 2243 1213, Boulder K indices: 2343 3322). Region 8753 was quiet and stable and will rotate off the visible disk today. Region 8755 was quiet and stable. Region 8758 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8759 was mostly unchanged and still has M class flaring potential. Region 8760 decayed slowly and remains capable of M class flaring. Region 8761 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8763 did not change significantly and could produce further M flares. Region 8764 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8765 developed further. The region has its spots in a fairly small area and the proximity of the negative and positive fields is likely to cause at least M class flare activity over the next days. An isolated X class flare is possible. Region 8766 is even tighter than region 8765 and has a magnetic delta configuration. The region is developing and could produce further major flares. New region 8767 emerged in the northwest quadrant at a very high latitude, the region appears to be a reversed polarity region. New region 8768 emerged in the northeast quadrant and has initially developed quickly. Should the current rate of development continue the region will soon become capable of minor M class flaring. A very active region is approaching the southeast limb, it appears to be capable of at least M class flaring. Flares and CMEs 9 C flares and 5 M flares were recorded on November 14. Region 8759 produced a C3.6/1F event at 04:40 UTC and an M1.4 impulsive flare at 17:04 UTC. Region 8763 was the source of a major flare, an M8.0/2B event at 08:01 UTC. Region 8765 generated a C5.0 flare at 03:55 UTC, a C4.9 flare at 06:38 UTC, a C5.0 flare at 15:40 UTC, an M2.2/SN flare at 16:23 UTC and finally an M2.9 impulsive flare at 18:09 UTC. Region 8766 produced the second major flare of the day, an M5.6 event at 16:07 UTC. An apparently full halo CME was observed starting at 18:30 in LASCO C2 images. Actually the CME may have started earlier over the east limb but it was evident over the west limb at that time. If the CME was associated with any of the 4 M flares occurring shortly before, the earth will likely receive an impact on November 17. Coronal mass ejections were observed earlier in the day as well, particularly off the east limb. A filament eruption in the northeast quadrant was observed starting at 18:36 UTC in LASCO EIT images. November 12: Region 8759 produced an M1.7 long duration event peaking at 09:16 UTC. Material outflow was observed in most directions in LASCO C2 images and there is a chance that earth could receive an impact from the coronal mass ejection on November 15. The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 14-15. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled initially on November 15. Should a CME from the long duration M flare in region 8759 on November 12 arrive, active to major storming would be expected. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8753 991103 4 N22W80 0010 BXO 8754 991104 S07W66 plage 8755 991105 1 N23W48 0070 HSX 8758 991106 N18W39 plage 8759 991106 56 N11W21 0270 FAI beta-gamma 8760 991107 18 N15W59 0460 FKO 8761 991108 N20W28 plage 8763 991110 11 S15E18 0070 CSO beta-gamma 8764 991110 N18W69 plage 8765 991111 31 S12E32 0640 EKC beta-gamma 8766 991113 9 N17E57 0190 DAO beta-delta 8767 991114 4 N43W29 0020 CSO 8768 991114 8 N17E33 0030 DSO Total number of sunspots: 151 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 9901 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 9902 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 9903 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 9904 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 9905 148.4 106.4 (90.4 predicted, +5.0) 9906 169.8 137.7 (94.6 predicted, +4.2) 9907 165.6 113.5 (99.6 predicted, +5.0) 9908 170.7 93.7 9909 135.7 70.6 9910 164.8 116.4 9911 189.5 (1) 102.1 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]