Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update November 9, 1999 at 03:40 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on November 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 459 and 662 km/sec, generally increasing all day, under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 191.9, the planetary A index was 33 (3-hour Kp indices: 3455 6444, Boulder K indices: 3344 5444). Region 8747 rotated off the visible disk, as did region 8749. Region 8751 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8753 developed further and could produce C flares and even a minor M flare. Region 8754 decayed further and was quiet. Region 8755 was quiet and stable, as was region 8756. Region 8757 appears to be less likely to produce flares than it was just a day ago, the region was mostly quiet. Region 8758 was mostly unchanged and could produce occasional C flares. Region 8759 is a large and complex region capable of major flaring, further C flares are very likely, as are occasional M flares and perhaps even an X flare. Region 8760 developed further and has minor M class flaring potential. New region 8761 emerged near regions 8759 and 8758. A couple of active regions at the southeast limb should rotate into view over the next 1-3 days. Flares and CMEs 7 C flares were recorded on November 8. Region 8749 produced a C5.9 flare at 06:02 UTC. Region 8760 was the source of two C4.6 flares, the first an impulsive event at 11:17 UTC, the second a long duration event peaking at 16:14 UTC. Region 8759 generated two C flares, the most energetic was a C8.5 long duration event peaking at 18:52 UTC. Several coronal mass ejections were observed during the day, most of them off the east limb. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A large coronal hole mostly in the southern hemisphere and extending across the solar equator into the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position November 4-9. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels November 9-12 due to a coronal stream. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8747 991028 1 N12W90 0030 HAX 8749 991029 2 S18W89 0030 AXX 8751 991030 4 N23W50 0020 CSO 8752 991103 S13W65 plage 8753 991103 17 N21E03 0110 DAO 8754 991104 2 S10E13 0030 CSO 8755 991105 1 N23E29 0080 HSX 8756 991105 1 N16W36 0000 AXX 8757 991105 11 N38W31 0090 EAO 8758 991106 10 N18E41 0070 CAO 8759 991106 34 N13E58 0850 FKC beta-gamma 8760 991107 25 N14E22 0090 DAO 8761 991108 4 N22E51 0040 BXO Total number of sunspots: 112 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 9901 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 9902 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 9903 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 9904 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 9905 148.4 106.4 (90.4 predicted, +5.0) 9906 169.8 137.7 (94.6 predicted, +4.2) 9907 165.6 113.5 (99.6 predicted, +5.0) 9908 170.7 93.7 9909 135.7 70.6 9910 164.8 116.4 9911 157.5 (1) 42.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]