Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update November 8, 1999 at 04:40 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on November 7, isolated major storm intervals were observed at high latitudes. Solar wind speed ranged between 364 and 561 km/sec. A coronal stream influenced the geomagnetic field early in the day. At approximately 09:45 UTC an abrupt jump in solar wind speed from 450 to 530 km/sec was observed, this was likely a solar wind shock caused by a CME. It coincided in time with a significant strengthening of the interplanetary magnetic field, the IMF was at times strongly southwards following the apparent shock. Later in the day coronal stream effects became dominant again. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 173.9, the planetary A index was 24 (3-hour Kp indices: 3454 5433, Boulder K indices: 3443 5423). Region 8747 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region will rotate off the visible disk today. Region 8749 was mostly unchanged and has minor M class flare potential, the region is rotating off the visible disk. Region 8751 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8752 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8753 developed fairly quickly and has C class flaring potential. Region 8754 decayed slowly. Region 8755 was quiet and stable. Region 8756 was quiet and stable. Region 8757 developed further and could be capable of minor M class flaring. Region 8758 was mostly unchanged and is capable of producing further C flares. Region 8759 is a complex region capable of major flaring, the region was mostly quiet. New region 8760 has developed quickly in the northeast quadrant and is capable of at least C class flaring. Flares and CMEs 4 C flares were recorded on November 7 with the most significant flare a C3.1 event from region 8749 at 04:38 UTC. A very fast CME was observed off the southwest limb in LASCO C2 starting at 18:43 UTC on November 6, some material was evident over the northeast limb as well. The CME was probably the result of backside activity. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A large coronal hole mostly in the southern hemisphere and extending across the solar equator into the northern hemisphere will be in a geoeffective position November 4-9. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels November 8-12 due to a coronal stream. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8747 991028 3 N12W78 0030 CAO 8749 991029 5 S18W76 0140 EAO 8751 991030 3 N23W36 0030 CAO 8752 991103 S13W52 plage 8753 991103 10 N20E16 0020 DRO 8754 991104 5 S09E26 0030 CSO 8755 991105 1 N21E42 0100 HAX 8756 991105 2 N18W18 0000 BXO 8757 991105 15 N38W16 0120 DAO 8758 991106 5 N17E52 0080 CAO 8759 991106 16 N08E70 0440 FKC beta-gamma 8760 991107 10 N13E35 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 75 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 9901 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 9902 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 9903 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 9904 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 9905 148.4 106.4 (90.4 predicted, +5.0) 9906 169.8 137.7 (94.6 predicted, +4.2) 9907 165.6 113.5 (99.6 predicted, +5.0) 9908 170.7 93.7 9909 135.7 70.6 9910 164.8 116.4 9911 152.6 (1) 35.1 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]