Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update November 7, 1999 at 05:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 335 and 388 km/sec. Another weak solar wind shock was observed at ACE at 15:40 UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field swung moderately strongly southwards between 16 and 18h UTC. Near midnight the IMF intensified strongly and has since 03h UTC on November 7 been mostly strongly to very strongly southwards. Solar wind speed has increased gradually since midnight, likely because of a coronal stream. The IMF is however unusually strong for a coronal stream and may currently be influenced by a CME as well. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 150.5, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour Kp indices: 2111 1232, Boulder K indices: 2111 0221). Region 8745 was quiet and stable and appears to be spotless early on November 7. Region 8747 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8749 was mostly unchanged and has minor M class flaring potential. Region 8751 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8752 decayed and was quiet, the region is spotless early on November 7. Region 8753 reemerged with several spots. Region 8754 was quiet and stable. Region 8755 was quiet and stable. Region 8756 was quiet and stable and is spotless early on November 7. Region 8757 developed slowly and is capable of C class flaring. New region 8758 was split off from region 8755. New region 8759 rotated partly into view at the northeast limb, it appears to be the region which sourced yesterday's M3 flare. It is very active and likely has major flare potential. Flares and CMEs 5 C flares were recorded on November 6. Region 8749 produced a C3.7 flare at 20:40 UTC while region 8759 was the source of a C2.9 flare at 23:02 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A large coronal hole mostly in the southern hemisphere and extending across the solar equator into the northern hemisphere will be in a geoeffective position November 4-10. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on November 7, isolated severe storm intervals are possible. Unsettled to minor storm is likely November 8-13 due to a coronal stream. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally very poor to useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8745 991026 6 S13W76 0010 BXO 8747 991028 6 N10W64 0070 CSO 8749 991029 12 S18W64 0260 ESO beta-gamma 8751 991030 9 N22W23 0060 CSO 8752 991103 2 S13W39 0020 CRO 8753 991103 7 N20E29 0020 CSO 8754 991104 5 S09E41 0060 CSO 8755 991105 1 N21E57 0080 HSX 8756 991105 4 N18W02 0010 BXO 8757 991105 9 N38W03 0030 CRO 8758 991106 4 N18E64 0100 CSO 8759 991106 3 N10E78 0110 CSO Total number of sunspots: 68 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 9901 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 9902 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 9903 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 9904 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 9905 148.4 106.4 (90.4 predicted, +5.0) 9906 169.8 137.7 (94.6 predicted, +4.2) 9907 165.6 113.5 (99.6 predicted, +5.0) 9908 170.7 93.7 9909 135.7 70.6 9910 164.8 116.4 9911 149.1 (1) 28.9 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]