Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update November 5, 1999 at 04:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 346 and 394 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 147.5, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour Kp indices: 1211 1222, Boulder K indices: 2211 2112). Region 8742 was quiet, the region will rotate over the west limb today. Region 8745 was quiet and stable. Region 8747 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8749 produced several C flares and is likely to generate further C flares and perhaps a minor M flare. Region 8751 was quiet and stable, as was region 8752. Region 8753 decayed into spotless plage. New region 8754 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Several regions at an slightly behind the northeast limb will rotate into view over the next few days, at least one of the regions appear to be quite active in LASCO EIT images. Flares and CMEs 5 C flares were recorded on November 4, all produced by region 8749. The most notable flare was a C7.9 event at 05:03 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level. Coronal holes A large coronal hole mostly in the southern hemisphere and extending across the solar equator into the northern hemisphere will be in a geoeffective position November 4-11. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on November 5-6. On November 7-14 a coronal stream will cause unsettled to minor storm conditions, possibly with isolated major storm intervals. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair and could improve to fair to good before the coronal stream arrives. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8742 991023 3 N08W80 0100 HSX 8745 991026 5 S14W51 0040 DAO 8746 991027 S16W76 plage 8747 991028 7 N11W39 0090 DSO 8748 991029 N17W72 plage 8749 991029 14 S18W39 0230 EAO beta-gamma 8750 991029 S16W70 plage 8751 991030 3 N21E02 0040 CSO 8752 991103 5 S13W14 0010 BXO 8753 991103 N21E50 plage 8754 991104 1 S08E66 0050 HSX Total number of sunspots: 38 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 9901 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 9902 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 9903 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 9904 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 9905 148.4 106.4 (90.4 predicted, +5.0) 9906 169.8 137.7 (94.6 predicted, +4.2) 9907 165.6 113.5 (99.6 predicted, +5.0) 9908 170.7 93.7 9909 135.7 70.6 9910 164.8 116.4 9911 146.0 (1) 17.6 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]