Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update November 4, 1999 at 04:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 357 and 397 km/sec. What may be a weak coronal stream arrived at midnight but has so far failed to produce significant southerly excursions in the interplanetary magnetic field. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 143.1, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour Kp indices: 3011 1222, Boulder K indices: 3102 2211). Region 8742 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region will rotate over the west limb on November 5. Region 8745 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8747 was mostly unchanged and could produce C class flares. Region 8749 was mostly unchanged. The region began a new phase of flare activity late in the day and has produced several C flares early on November 4. A minor M flare is a distinct possibility. Region 8751 was quiet and stable. New region 8752 emerged in the southeast quadrant near the central meridian. New region 8753 rotated into view at the northeast limb, it appears to be spotless early on November 4. An active region at the southeast limb will be numbered today. A large, active region (or several regions) behind the northeast limb will rotate into view within 2-3 days, M class flares are possible from this (in soft x-rays) impressive area. Flares and CMEs 2 C flares were recorded on November 3 with region 8749 producing the most significant event of the day at 22:49 UTC, a C8.9 flare. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A large coronal hole mostly in the southern hemisphere and extending across the solar equator into the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position November 4-11. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 4-6. On November 7-14 a coronal stream will cause unsettled to minor storm conditions, possibly with isolated major storm intervals. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8742 991023 2 N08W68 0070 HSX 8744 991025 N09W79 plage 8745 991026 4 S15W39 0030 CSO 8746 991027 S16W63 plage 8747 991028 11 N12W25 0090 ESO 8748 991029 N17W59 8749 991029 26 S18W26 0210 ESO beta-gamma 8750 991029 S16W57 plage 8751 991030 2 N23E14 0040 HSX 8752 991103 1 S14E01 0000 AXX 8753 991103 1 N21E63 0000 AXX Total number of sunspots: 47 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 9901 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 9902 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 9903 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 9904 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 9905 148.4 106.4 (90.4 predicted, +5.0) 9906 169.8 137.7 (94.6 predicted, +4.2) 9907 165.6 113.5 (99.6 predicted, +5.0) 9908 170.7 93.7 9909 135.7 70.6 9910 164.8 116.4 9911 145.5 (1) 14.0 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]