Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Planetary A Index, Solar Flux and SEC sunspot number] Last update November 2, 1999 at 02:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 1999)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-1999] [Experimental solar data chart January 1998-September 1999] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 395 and 489 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 150.6, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour Kp indices: 3224 3222, Boulder K indices: 2324 3222). Region 8739 was quiet and stable and has rotated off the visible disk early on November 2. Region 8741 decayed further but generated several sub flares towards the end of the day, the region could produce C flares before rotating behind the southwest limb on November 3. Region 8742 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8743 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 8744 was quiet and stable. Region 8745 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 8747 decayed slowly and could produce further C class flares. Region 8748 decayed slowly and could become spotless today. Region 8749 developed slowly and should continue to produce C flares, minor M flares are possible as well. Region 8750 decayed into spotless plage. Region 8751 was quiet and stable. Flares and CMEs 7 C flares were recorded on November 1 with region 8749 producing 4 of the events and region 8747 generating 2 C flares. Region 8749 was the source of the most significant event of the day, a C3.7 flare at 01:42 UTC. October 31: The most significant event of the day was a moderate duration C7.6/1N flare from region 8749 peaking at 07:02 UTC. It was associated with a weak type II sweep and a partial halo coronal mass ejection. The CME could impact the earth on November 3. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A large coronal hole mostly in the southern hemisphere and extending across the solar equator into the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position November 5-8. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 2. There is a possibility of a CME impact on November 3. Should that happen unsettled to minor storming would be likely. On November 8-11 a coronal stream will cause unsettled to minor storm conditions, possibly with isolated major storm intervals. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 8739 991020 10 S12W89 0180 EAI 8741 991022 5 S25W67 0150 EAO 8742 991023 12 N08W38 0170 EAO 8743 991025 5 S15W73 0110 ESO 8744 991025 2 N09W53 0010 AXX 8745 991026 7 S15W12 0090 CAO 8746 991027 S16W37 plage 8747 991028 11 N12E03 0120 DAO 8748 991029 2 N17W33 0000 AXX 8749 991029 23 S18E02 0160 EAO 8750 991029 S16W31 plage 8751 991030 1 N21E40 0030 HSX Total number of sunspots: 78 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 77.9 (+4.9) 9901 140.6 62.0 82.6 (+4.7) 9902 141.9 66.3 84.6 (+2.0) 9903 126.3 68.8 83.8 (-0.8) 9904 117.2 63.7 85.4 (+1.6) 9905 148.4 106.4 (90.4 predicted, +5.0) 9906 169.8 137.7 (94.6 predicted, +4.2) 9907 165.6 113.5 (99.6 predicted, +5.0) 9908 170.7 93.7 9909 135.7 70.6 9910 164.8 116.4 9911 150.6 (1) 5.9 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]