:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 1999 Aug 17 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
09 - 15 AUGUST 1999

SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM VERY LOW TO LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED THROUGH THE PERIOD, MOST OF WHICH WERE PRODUCED BY
REGION 8662 (S16, L=086, CLASS/AREA FAI/290 ON 10 AUGUST). THIS
REGION WAS OF MODERATE SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND SHOWED
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING 09 - 10 AUGUST, THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATED
DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS WERE EVIDENT ON 15 AUGUST WITH INCREASED
VELOCITIES AND INCREASED IMF BZ VARIABILITY WITH MAXIMUM SOUTHERLY
DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 14 NT (GSM).

NO PROTON EVENTS WERE DETECTED AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DURING THE
PERIOD.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT NORMAL TO MODERATE
LEVELS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MILDLY DISTURBED ON 09 AUGUST WITH ACTIVE
PERIODS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND BRIEF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BEGAN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
15 AUGUST WITH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS REPORTED AT ALL LATITUDES.
THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARED TO BE IN RESPONSE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
18 AUGUST - 13 SEPTEMBER 1999

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. AN
OVERALL INCREASING TREND MAY COMMENCE AROUND 19 AUGUST WITH THE
EXPECTED RETURNS OF OLD REGIONS 8645, 8647, AND 8651, WHICH PRODUCED
MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY DURING THEIR PREVIOUS ROTATIONS. CHANCES
FOR MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE BEGINNING ON 19
AUGUST.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT AT
GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGINNING ON 19 AUGUST.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT  MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS, THEN DECREASE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS DURING 18 AUGUST DUE TO CONTINUED CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, BARRING ANY EARTH-DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS.


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