:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 1999 Aug 03 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
26 JULY - 01 AUGUST 1999

SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM LOW TO HIGH LEVELS.THE WEEK BEGAN WITH
ACTIVITY AT LOW LEVELS, THEN INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS ON 27 JULY
DUE TO AN M3/1N AT 27/1405UT FROM REGION 8636 (N21, L=332,
CLASS/AREA FKI/610 ON 27 JULY). MODERATE ACTIVITY CONTINUED THROUGH
28 JULY WITH A COUPLE LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 8649
(S15, L=271, CLASS/AREA DAO/170 ON 30 JULY) INCLUDING AN M1/SF AT
28/0201UT WITH A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP AND A 450 SFU TENFLARE.
ACTIVITY INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS ON 29 JULY BY VIRTUE OF AN
IMPULSIVE M5/1N FLARE AT 29/1934UT FROM REGION 8651 (N24, L=204,
CLASS/AREA EKC/870 ON 01 AUGUST) ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR DISCRETE RADIO
EMISSION. ACTIVITY RETURNED TO MODERATE LEVELS ON 30 JULY WITH
ANOTHER ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8649. ACTIVITY
DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES FROM REGIONS 8645 AND 8651.

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOLAR WIND FLOW THROUGH 29
JULY. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION SIGNATURE WAS EVIDENT ON 30 JULY WITH
A VELOCITY INCREASE FROM 380 - 680 KM/SEC, INCREASED DENSITIES, AND
A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD IMF BZ WITH DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 12
NT (GSM).

NO PROTON EVENTS WERE DETECTED AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DURING THE
PERIOD.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX BRIEFLY REACHED HIGH LEVELS ON
26 JULY. OTHERWISE, FLUXES WERE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH 29
JULY. A SUDDEN STORM COMMENCEMENT OCCURRED AT 30/1948UT (89 NT, AS
MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER) FOLLOWED BY ACTIVE TO
MAJOR STORM LEVELS WITH BRIEF SEVERE STORM PERIODS AT HIGH
LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE DECLINED TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON
31 JULY, THEN ENDED EARLY ON 01 AUGUST. THE FIELD WAS AT QUIET
LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
04 - 30 AUGUST 1999

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS.
REGIONS 8645 AND 8651 ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE
SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS
ALTITUDE.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT  NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS DURING 05 AUGUST DUE TO RECENT CME ACTIVITY. ACTIVE LEVELS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND 18 AUGUST DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BARRING ANY EARTH-DIRECTED
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS.


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